Insights 
VT 
Surge in Gold Prices
In October, the Michigan Consumer Expectations Index fell to 51.2 from 51.7, indicating a downward trend in consumer sentiment. This decline captures changing perspectives on personal finance and the broader economic landscape.
In related market activities, the Dow Jones Industrial Average witnessed a downturn due to renewed talks of tariffs related to China. Tensions between the US and China have prompted changes in the market, notably affecting commodities like gold and currencies such as the Australian dollar and British pound.
Gold prices have surged to near $4,000 as investors seek safety amidst escalating trade tensions. Meanwhile, the US Dollar came under pressure, as concerns about US-China relations prompted sterling to appreciate in value.
Bitcoin remains above a support range between $120,000 and $121,000, while altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple hover near critical support levels. Litecoin shows resilience, increasing to about $130 as retail interest surged.
US tariffs continue to be a focal point of foreign policy and public financial strategy. Despite daily news cycles, the US maintains its stance on using tariffs as a significant policy instrument.
Trade Friction with China
The Michigan Consumer Expectations Index just slipped to 51.2, showing that people are getting nervous about the future economy. This pessimism often leads to less spending, and we’ve already seen retail sales growth slow to just 0.2% in the third quarter of 2025. This consumer weakness is a significant warning sign for the market.
Renewed trade friction with China is bringing back bad memories of the 2018-2019 period. Back then, we saw how quickly surprise tariffs could hammer stock prices and send volatility soaring. The VIX, the market’s fear gauge, frequently spiked above 20 during those disputes, a level we are rapidly approaching again.
With equity markets like the Dow crumbling, this is a time to consider buying protection. Put options on major indices like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) offer a way to profit from further downturns. Selling call spreads can also be an effective strategy to bet that the market has hit a ceiling for now.
Gold is acting as the classic safe haven, with prices surging toward the $4,000 mark. Buying call options on gold futures or related ETFs provides a leveraged way to ride this flight to safety. This move is supported by heavy institutional buying, as global central banks have already been net purchasers of over 500 metric tons of gold year-to-date in 2025.
The sharp drop in WTI crude oil below $60 signals that traders are bracing for a global slowdown. Trade wars mean less manufacturing and shipping, which directly cuts into energy demand. With China’s latest manufacturing PMI already dipping into contraction territory at 49.8, new tariffs would only worsen the outlook for oil.
In currency markets, the Australian dollar is especially weak, as its value is closely tied to China’s economic health. We are looking at put options on the AUD/USD pair to capitalize on this dynamic. The euro’s relative strength against the dollar suggests traders see this as a problem centered on the US, not just a global dollar rally.
