Insights 
VT 
The likelihood of crude oil reaching the $72 mark is growing as the market anticipates increased demand. Despite recent negative news about supply, such as Saudi Arabia’s push for OPEC+ to boost production, the market has largely ignored these developments, focusing instead on future demand prospects.
Demand remains a crucial aspect, driven by global economic easing, tax cuts, deregulation, and diminished trade tensions. These factors are propelling global growth, bolstering crude oil demand expectations.
Bearish Market Positioning
Bearish market positioning in crude oil suggests a potential rapid rise in prices should a breakout occur. On the WTI crude oil 4-hour chart, the price has crossed above the $64 resistance and is now testing the $65 trendline. This area is seen as a battleground, with sellers eyeing a possible retreat to $55, while buyers are readying for a climb towards the $72 level.
The article outlines a scenario where crude oil prices are leaning towards a rise, primarily because investors are betting on stronger demand. While there have been reports about increased supply—particularly with pressure on OPEC+ to pump more oil—traders appear to be paying less attention to production headlines. Instead, they’re aligning their expectations with what seems to be solid economic momentum building globally.
This renewed optimism is being fed by several developments: trade tensions have eased, tax policies are loosening up, regulatory environments are shifting, and central banks have been on a path of monetary easing. All of these elements not only support economic activity but also drive up consumption of raw materials, including oil. So far, the market has chosen to price in demand optimism rather than concerns over extra barrels entering the system.
Now, let’s consider what the technical levels are telling us. On the shorter time frames—in this case, a 4-hour view of WTI—oil has pushed through what used to be solid resistance at $64 per barrel. It has even begun testing the waters above $65. That particular zone is stuffed with interest from both sides; sellers are watching closely, potentially looking for signs of weakness so they can push things back down towards $55. At the same time, buyers appear to be quietly accumulating, placing their sights on a full move towards $72 if momentum holds.
Technical Levels and Market Movements
Positioning in the derivatives space suggests there is room for further upside. This is not a market that is heavily loaded with bullish bets. On the contrary, there are still many on the sidelines or leaning negative, which creates the potential for a quick repositioning if prices start to move firmly higher. Short-covering could magnify any rally beyond $65, especially as buyers sniff out an opportunity to catch the trend early.
From our view, this is a moment where action depends on alertness. The tape is telling us that the $65 area isn’t any ordinary level—it’s the kind of zone that attracts volume, stops, and emotions. Derivative traders will want to keep an eye on how volumes respond as we approach $66 and beyond. We’ve seen setups like this before. When scepticism plays against persistent buying, moves tend to surprise, not because charts forecast them, but because positioning is misaligned with price behaviour.
It’s worth noting that if the $66-$67 band is cleared with conviction—backed by volume and not just sporadic spikes—momentum strategies are likely to switch into follow-mode very quickly. We’ve already seen optionality becoming more sensitive in that area, which hints that large players are preparing for volatility.
On the downside, the $64 level, now acting as support, becomes a reference point. A drop below that zone with heavy selling pressure could force some of the newer longs to unwind rapidly. This would take us back to an earlier congestion zone near $60, and from there, potentially lower into that $55 basin where sellers have been gathering interest for weeks.
In the immediate term, we should not assume that the past reaction to OPEC+ commentary will hold indefinitely. Should production increases be confirmed in detail, or if inventories globally start ballooning unexpectedly, those would be tangible shifts to factor into risk estimates. For now, though, our focus remains on price reactions, rather than the chatter.
As we monitor this staging area around $65-$66, volatility strategies may offer more asymmetric pay-off than directional outright positions. That said, if momentum continues upwards and positioning remains disjointed, even directional bets could find sessions where risk-to-reward tilts more favourably. This moment is less about prediction and more about being prepared for acceleration—either way.
