Insights 
VT 
The United States ISM Manufacturing PMI for June recorded a value of 49. This is slightly above the forecast of 48.8.
In recent trading, EUR/USD hovers near 1.1700 due to a weak US Dollar and concerns regarding the Fed’s independence under a new era of leadership. The GBP/USD remains robust, above 1.3700, capitalising on dollar weakness and close to three-year highs.
Gold Price Trends
Gold prices have shown a mild positive trend, although they still remain below the $3,350 mark. Reports regarding considerations to replace the Federal Reserve Chair have added to concerns about the future direction of US monetary policy.
Bitcoin Cash experiences a moderate uptick, advancing by 2% after a previous increase. The currency is close to reaching the $500 level, indicating growing momentum.
Tensions in the Persian Gulf are rising due to Israel-Iran conflicts. Discussions about a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are placing oil markets under increased stress.
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With the ISM Manufacturing PMI printing at 49 for June — just above expectations — we see a picture of an American manufacturing sector continuing to shrink, albeit at a slightly slower pace than forecast. It remains below the 50 threshold that distinguishes contraction from expansion, reminding us that economic strength is neither broad-based nor accelerating. Any pullback in industrial production can temper demand for credit, limit inflationary pressure, and, by extension, influence the Fed’s approach.
The euro strengthening against the dollar near 1.1700 reflects ongoing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s autonomy with new leadership under examination. This sentiment has underpinned a broader retreat in the greenback. By contrast, sterling holds firm above 1.3700, buoyed not only by dollar weakness but also a steady stream of domestic resilience. While immediate tightening from the Bank of England appears well-priced, the persistent pricing implies confidence that any divergence from US monetary policy will be gradual and steady.
Gold has nudged upward, but beneath the psychological $3,350 ceiling, its performance shows investors aren’t yet making a strong push for safety. There’s caution in the air. While chatter of a change atop the Fed isn’t new, it still injects doubt surrounding long-term rate forecasts and inflation control. That weighs on the dollar and lends modest support to bullion, yet the lack of a sharper rise suggests the market expects some continuity to prevail.
Bitcoin Cash Trends
Bitcoin Cash, up another 2%, appears to be moving in step with wider appetite for risk across speculative assets. Nearing the $500 zone, we’re seeing how specific cryptocurrencies remain sensitive to macro narratives but also driven by internal momentum, technical milestones, and volume concentrations. The nature of this climb hints at broader positioning shifts rather than daily sentiment moves.
Oil remains exposed. The mounting anxiety over escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, and the possible threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, has begun to seep into energy pricing. Any disruption through one of the key transit points for global oil supply could trigger sharp repricing, and right now, the market is watching the rhetoric closely. Moves in Brent and WTI futures merit close observation over the next fortnight, especially in relation to options activity around $90 and higher.
What this suggests for us — particularly those of us who trade instruments tied to interest rate forwards, commodities, and cross-currency correlations — is that we need to be more vigilant about directional bets driven by political shifts. Volatility remains event-driven and concentrated around catalysts that combine policy with geopolitics. In particular, options strategies tied to expected policy shifts and tail-risk hedges might become more active in the days ahead.
We’ve also noticed growing dispersion between asset classes. While equities aren’t mirroring the cautious tone of commodities or metals, this divergence creates compelling spread opportunities for those watching beta-adjusted pairs or correlation breakdowns.
Risk management remains central, not only because of widening policy uncertainty but also due to tactical moves in currency basis swaps and short-term funding stress indicators. Elevated levels in these instruments can often pre-empt broader volatility in rates and FX, especially as we head into a quarter with leadership changes and central bank communication challenges.
Monitoring changes in both short-term inflation expectations and central bank meeting pricing — especially around the September contracts — provides additional clarity. Combined with a live recalibration of geopolitical risk, this is shaping opportunity in derivative markets that have retraced quickly from June’s end-of-quarter positioning.
We’re entering a very technical phase. Cross-asset volatility metrics, from MOVE to CVIX, need constant observation, particularly when aligned with rising gamma exposures into quarterly expirations. We recommend increased scrutiny on skew developments for short-dated interest rate exposure and the utility of dynamic spreads shaped by spot/vol correlation.
Keep margins tight where confidence is high, but be ready to fade exaggerated moves if they run into option expiries or key levels.
