Insights 
VT 
China’s central bank, the PBOC, has maintained its interest rate at 3%, aligning with expectations. Additionally, the loan prime rates have been left unchanged for October.
China’s economy expanded by 4.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025 as projected. The PBOC has set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0973, slightly down from the previous 7.0949.
Currency Pairs Performance
Various currency pairs have displayed subdued performance amid recent developments. EUR/USD is weakened by France’s downgraded credit rating, while GBP/USD holds above 1.3400 due to a softer USD balancing dovish BoE outlooks.
Gold prices slightly decreased to around $4,245 as demand waned post-festive season. Upcoming CPI and PMI data releases could influence central bank rate decisions, with markets watching for potential policy changes.
In global events, anticipation surrounds the Trump–Xi meeting at the APEC summit. Here, traders remain cautious about the meeting’s outcomes on tensions between the two nations.
Cryptocurrency markets have faced losses, with BNB, Solana, and Cardano each dropping over 10%. Total crypto liquidations have exceeded $1 billion in the past day, marking notable declines in the top cryptocurrency rankings.
Upcoming Economic Data
We are looking at a market holding its breath, with upcoming inflation data from the US and UK set to challenge the dovish sentiment from central banks. The APEC summit, featuring a high-stakes meeting between Trump and Xi, adds another layer of uncertainty. This environment suggests short-term, data-driven trades will be more effective than long-term directional bets.
The downgrade of France’s credit rating to A+ puts significant pressure on the Euro, reminding us of the sovereign debt concerns we saw back in the early 2010s. We should consider buying puts on the EUR/USD, especially as Eurozone PMI data later this week is expected to be weak. The latest Sentix Investor Confidence index, which fell to -18.5 last week, supports this bearish outlook on the Eurozone economy.
For the GBP/USD, the key battle is between dovish expectations for the Bank of England and similar bets for the US Federal Reserve. We are watching the upcoming UK CPI report; if it misses the 2.5% forecast, it could cement a BoE rate cut and be a trigger to short the pound. Given the pair’s tight consolidation above 1.3400, setting up straddles could be a good way to play the breakout after the inflation numbers are released.
China’s economic data is stable but uninspiring, with Q3 GDP landing at the expected 4.8%. This suggests the PBOC will likely remain on the sidelines, but the gradual weakening of the Yuan reference rate ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting hints at underlying tension. Long volatility plays on the USD/CNH offshore Yuan could be a prudent way to position for any surprises from that summit.
The market has been pricing in Federal Reserve rate cuts, but we should be cautious as the US labor market has remained surprisingly resilient, with the last NFP report showing a gain of 195,000 jobs. A higher-than-expected CPI print this week could cause a rapid repricing, strengthening the dollar. Any unexpected positive outcome on resource trading from the APEC summit could spark a sharp, risk-on rally.
The crypto market is signaling extreme risk aversion after more than $1 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated over the weekend. The double-digit losses in major altcoins suggest we should avoid adding aggressive long exposure for now. Instead, we can use options strategies that benefit from the currently high implied volatility, such as selling covered calls on existing holdings.
