Insights 
VT 
Germany’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI for October matches forecasts at 49.6. The data indicates the manufacturing sector’s performance remains below the 50.0 neutral mark.
In currency news, GBP/USD hovers near five-month lows, weighed down by UK fiscal concerns and a stabilising US dollar. EUR/USD, meanwhile, falls toward 1.1500, reaching its lowest since August.
Market Movements
Silver trades around $48.70 as markets brace for a busy US data week. Crude oil prices dip despite OPEC+ output plans, while the US dollar strengthens, supported by anticipated US private-sector data.
Gold remains steady at $4,000, hindered by hawkish Fed comments and rising US Treasury yields. Meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu face selling pressure as large investors reduce exposure.
Cardano slips below $0.58, extending a 10% fall from the previous week, due to weak on-chain activity and increased trader short bets. The mixed global financial outlook raises questions about whether risk sentiment will remain stable in the coming week.
As of November 3, 2025, the US Dollar’s strength is the dominant market theme, and we expect this to continue. Recent US data from October showed Q3 GDP growth holding firm at 2.5% and core inflation remaining sticky, prompting a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. This makes holding dollars attractive, putting pressure on other major currencies.
Currency Challenges
The outlook for the Euro is particularly weak, with the German manufacturing PMI for October coming in at 49.6, indicating a slight contraction in the Eurozone’s largest economy. This economic softness, combined with a less aggressive European Central Bank, suggests the EUR/USD pair will struggle to reclaim the 1.1500 level. We see opportunities in buying put options on the EUR/USD or selling futures contracts.
Similarly, the British Pound is facing headwinds near 1.3100 due to renewed UK fiscal concerns, which remind us of the market volatility seen back in late 2022. The Bank of England is unlikely to match the Fed’s hawkishness, creating a clear policy divergence that should cap any significant rallies in GBP/USD. Derivative plays that profit from the pair either falling further or staying within a tight range look appealing.
Gold is in a precarious position, holding steady around the high mark of $4,000 an ounce. While this price reflects persistent inflation over the past two years, the rising US 10-year Treasury yield, which is back near 4.9%, creates a strong headwind for the non-yielding metal. We anticipate a range-bound market, making strategies like selling strangles on XAU/USD worth considering for traders betting on low volatility in the coming weeks.
Within the digital asset space, risk appetite is clearly fading as speculative tokens like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are falling. The decline in Cardano (ADA) below $0.58 is driven by increasing short positions and weakening on-chain activity. This suggests a broader move away from risk, making it prudent to consider protective put options on major cryptocurrencies or to avoid long exposure for now.
