Insights 
VT 
India’s trade deficit stood at $32.15 billion in September, rising from $26.49 billion. This marks an increase in the gap between the country’s exports and imports compared to the previous period.
The update follows various market analyses, noting that other assets, like silver, gold, and cryptocurrencies, also face movement influenced by global tensions. The continuing tensions between the US and China are particularly affecting different sectors globally.
Market Insights From FXStreet Experts
Further insights from FXStreet experts focus on specific market behaviours. For instance, gold prices have maintained stability near $4,200 per troy ounce, bolstered by political uncertainties. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price struggles to exceed $112,500 amid persistent global economic challenges.
Despite a revised upward global growth forecast, the International Monetary Fund highlights that the pace of expansion remains tepid. Attention remains on whether main cryptocurrencies can sustain recovery amid resistance at technical levels.
Decisions in global markets involve significant risk, and thorough individual research is advised. FXStreet emphasises that market and instrument information serves only for informational purposes and does not represent direct investment recommendations or advice.
With gold holding firm around $4,200 an ounce, we see this as a primary safe-haven play driven by the US government shutdown and trade fears. The environment supports using derivatives to maintain long exposure. We believe buying call options on major gold ETFs or using futures contracts are effective ways to capitalize on this flight to safety over the coming weeks.
India’s Trade Deficit And Currency Impact
India’s September trade deficit has expanded to $32.15 billion, a figure that signals intense pressure on the Indian Rupee. This reminds us of past emerging market stress, like the currency volatility of 2013, where widening deficits led to sharp depreciations. Consequently, we see value in purchasing USD/INR call options to position for further weakness in the Rupee.
The US Dollar is softening due to the shutdown and expectations of Fed easing, but this trend may not last. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has already climbed over 15% in the last month to trade above 22, so markets are pricing in a sharp move. For a pair like GBP/USD, which is trading in a tight range, using a straddle is a good way to trade a potential breakout driven by this underlying uncertainty.
Silver is showing bullish momentum as it approaches the key resistance level of $53.77. The gold-to-silver ratio is currently around 79, which is high compared to the historical average, suggesting silver may be undervalued relative to gold. We view call spreads as a cost-effective strategy to position for a potential breakout and a narrowing of this ratio.
