Insights 
VT 
Gold price increased by 0.4% to nearly $3,995 during the European session on Friday, stabilising after a recent high of nearly $4,060. The price movement followed a four-day winning streak that ended due to a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which theoretically reduces demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.
Despite easing tensions, the Gold price outlook remains strong as Federal Reserve officials suggest more interest rate cuts are likely. New York Fed Bank President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated risks to the labour market and less inflationary pressure, which could prompt rate cuts favouring non-yielding assets like Gold.
Technical Analysis
Technically, Gold price retraces after nearing $4,060, yet the trend is bullish with the 20-day EMA sloping higher around $3,834.10. The price could potentially rise towards $4,100, with key support around $3,900.
Central banks, particularly from emerging economies like China, India, and Turkey, are major Gold buyers, having purchased 1,136 tonnes worth $70 billion in 2022. Geopolitical instability and interest rates influence Gold price, often inversely related to the US Dollar and other assets. A weaker Dollar can push Gold prices up due to its pricing in dollars.
The recent pullback from the $4,060 high should be seen as a temporary pause, not the end of the bull run. This dip is tied to the ceasefire news, which reduces the immediate need for a safe-haven asset. For us, this presents a potential entry point before the next leg up.
The Federal Reserve’s stance is the most important factor driving prices higher. With the latest September 2025 jobs report showing growth of only 85,000, well below forecasts, Fed officials are clearly signaling more rate cuts are coming this year. This environment of lower interest rates is extremely positive for non-yielding gold.
Inflation and Monetary Policy Impact
Concerns about inflation are also fading, with the recent CPI figure for September 2025 coming in at 2.8%, making it easier for the Fed to cut rates. Furthermore, strong underlying demand continues, as the World Gold Council just reported that central banks bought another 250 tonnes in the third quarter of 2025. This persistent buying from major institutions creates a solid floor under the market.
Given this outlook, we believe selling puts or implementing bull call spreads could be effective strategies to capitalize on the expected upward trend. The technical picture remains strong, with key support around the $3,900 level. Any dip towards this area should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
We’ve seen this kind of price action before, particularly in late 2023 and early 2024 from our perspective today. Geopolitical de-escalation often causes short-term weakness within a larger uptrend driven by monetary policy. History suggests these pullbacks are better to buy into than to fear.
