The GBPUSD is trading at new highs for the day and year, reaching 1.3648, surpassing February 2022’s high of 1.3644. This current momentum puts the focus on the next key resistance level on the weekly chart.

This crucial resistance is the 50% retracement of the decline seen from the 2014 high to the 2022 low, located at 1.37683. The previous high in January 2022, which almost reached this midpoint at 1.37479, emphasises the resistance of this area.

Support and Resistance Levels

Support levels are now noted between 1.36158 and 1.36338, marked by swing highs from June 5. If the price remains above this range, the positive bias persists, with buyers maintaining control. However, slipping below this support zone may counter the momentum.

So far, we’ve seen the pair press past a notable barrier not reached in over two years, breaching both the intraday peak and marking a new yearly high. With price action now pressing into territory not charted since early 2022, eyes naturally shift to the next overhead challenge, the midpoint retracement from that longer-term decline.

Specifically, 1.37683 acts as a technical checkpoint—resistance rooted in that substantial correction from 2014 highs down to the lows of 2022. When the market last met this vicinity back in January 2022, it reversed lower just before touching it, stalling at 1.37479. That prior failure near the same retracement adds weight to its validity.

Now that we’ve pushed through the earlier ceiling around 1.3644, price behaviour near 1.3768 will say a lot about positioning decisions into quarter-end. If there’s continued strength and little rejection near that zone, it removes the excuse for selling into rallies and suggests that positioning is not yet overly one-sided.

Trading Strategies and Risks

As for support, the focus shifts toward the band between 1.36158 and 1.36338. These levels are rooted in previous swing highs—places where price attempted and failed to continue higher earlier this month. Our view is that remaining above this band keeps the short-term bias tilted upward and leaves room for incremental gains. Dipping below, however, shifts the burden back to buyers, and likely triggers profit-taking, especially among shorter-term accounts.

Traders exposed to leveraged strategies may want to be less aggressive should we pull back toward those previous highs now acting as support, rather than stepping on the bid reflexively. A measured approach, with tighter risk parameters near the 1.3768 region, reduces the chance of being whipsawed if price fails again at the midpoint.

Any retracement from this zone ought to be closely tracked for momentum fade. If energy is lost and volume softens while price hovers beneath 1.3768, it would mark the second failure at that line, not just technically intriguing, but also behaviourally instructive.

In terms of volatility, this run-up hasn’t been disorderly. There’s been methodical structure on intraday charts, which implies trend following strategies have been rewarded, especially those that viewed the breakout above 1.3644 as a continuation, not an exhaustion.

We’ll be monitoring whether commitments around 1.368-1.370 begin to accelerate. If positioning tilts too heavily toward further upside without pause, the typical fading behaviour seen near major fib retracement lines could reappear. This would echo the January 2022 pattern, albeit with different fundamentals now supporting the swing.

Therefore, price reaction near the midpoint matters. Not because it’s symbolic—but because recent history shows us that rallies have previously lacked follow-through here. Patience remains more valuable than aggression.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.