The USDCHF pair remains near April lows as the market anticipates new developments to establish a sustained trend. The Federal Reserve maintained rates and projected two rate cuts for 2025, with no forward guidance offered by Fed Chair Powell due to ongoing uncertainty. The USD briefly rose post-announcement, though primarily due to minimal reasons rather than substantive shifts.

Current market expectations include two rate cuts in 2025, favouring the likelihood of additional reductions. Stronger economic data may be necessary for a more hawkish sentiment and increase in the USD’s value.

On the Swiss front, the SNB cut interest rates by 25 bps to 0.00%, hesitating to turn negative unless necessary. Another rate cut to -0.25% is anticipated by year’s end.

Daily Technical Analysis

In daily technical analysis, the USDCHF shows potential for a double bottom, with buyers targeting the 0.8475 neckline. Sellers aim for a break below 0.8038 to pursue lower levels. On the 1-hour chart, an upward trendline supports bullish momentum, with buyers likely to continue leveraging this trendline. They may seek dip-buying opportunities around 0.8145 if the price drops below this trendline.

This article outlines a scenario where the USD/CHF currency pair hovers close to its lowest levels since April. The broader takeaway is that momentum remains stalled, as traders digest a lack of definitive policy cues and conflicting data from both central banks. The Federal Reserve has chosen to hold rates steady, laying out only distant plans for modest reductions in 2025, and avoiding any promises or markers for its next move. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly lowered its own key rate to zero, bringing the prospect of negative rates back into view, though such a move would likely only come in response to further pressure.

For traders focusing on derivatives, particularly short-dated options or leveraged contracts, there’s a clearer sense now that volatility could be lurking beneath the surface rather than erupting immediately. Powell’s choice to stay noncommittal introduces plenty of room for market repricing, especially if the incoming U.S. data diverges from current assumptions. Any uptick in inflation figures or firming labour market conditions could tilt expectations away from easing and, in turn, ignite support for the dollar in short bursts. Any softness, though, may do the opposite. That’s where attention needs to be.

Market Dynamics and Strategy

Jordan’s rate cut, though a fraction in size, hints at a deeper discomfort with the strength of the franc and subdued inflation. Another downward adjustment seems increasingly baked into expectations. If that cut comes, and if it happens against a backdrop of steady or hawkish rhetoric from the Fed, it could drive relative strength into USD/CHF. But timing will matter immensely, particularly as speculation begins to build into December.

From a technical perspective, the patterns taking shape carry weight. The suggestion of a double bottom might appear textbook—but the implications are material. If the pair breaches the 0.8475 neckline, bids may firm up quickly, drawing in traders eyeing the next leg higher. There’s a pocket of inefficiency there that bulls may try to exploit.

That said, the floor isn’t immune. A clear break below 0.8038 would nullify much of the buying setup and tip momentum in the opposite direction. The current incline visible on the hourly chart isn’t dramatic, but it’s been stable, and often a gradual trendline, when respected, offers better risk-reward entries than a suddenly steep slope. Traders scoping entries could stay alert for moves near 0.8145—a price zone that, if revisited, may serve as a loading area for those looking to lengthen positions.

We are paying attention to relative momentum readings, and while oversold conditions have begun to appear stretched at shorter intervals, the absence of decisive volume around these bounces is a concern. For any rally to have substance, depth must follow.

With no speeches scheduled from Fed officials this week, the drive returns to data and rate differentials. Swiss CPI hasn’t surprised recently, but markets often move when they least anticipate it. Part of the strategy here may be staying nimble around release hours and using implied volatility in options to gauge whether the market sees risk of a move.

In the meantime, tracking rate expectations via Fed Funds futures and noting any sustained movement at the front end of the curve remains essential. If pricing for another SNB cut inches higher ahead of year-end, the relative appeal of the USD side may strengthen—even without firm guidance from the Fed.

Pattern recognition, reaction to trendline support, and momentum confirmation should guide positioning. The market isn’t in flux so much as in waiting, and in such phases, price tends to test both extremes. That’s when sharp, transparent levels become valuable. It’s why we’re watching price react rather than trying to predict further out than charts allow.

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