The EURUSD currency pair recently reached its highest point since October 2021, nearing 1.16297, the June high, but stalled just above this level. Today’s movement also approached this peak but did not break through, causing a retreat back to a known swing area defining current resistance.

The overall trend remains upward, providing it stays above the 1.1569 to 1.1578 support range, which includes recent lows and the 100-hour moving average at 1.15499. This area has previously sparked bullish reversals and remains a key short-term control indicator.

Potential Impact Of Falling Below Support Range

If the EURUSD falls below the 1.1569–1.1578 range, the bullish sentiment may weaken, targeting the moving averages at 1.15499 and 1.15367. Should these levels break, sellers could gain greater control.

A strong move above 1.16297 might trigger more buying activity, affirming the continuation of the broader uptrend. Key resistance levels to monitor are between 1.16142 and 1.16297, and the previous high at 1.16355. Support levels include the 1.1569–1.1578 zone and moving averages at 1.15499 and 1.15367. Buyers maintain control if above 1.1570 but need a solid break over 1.16297 for further gains.

What this tells us is fairly straightforward: the pair has been on the move higher for some time, testing growing optimism—but momentum has waned just beneath older highs. The level just under 1.1630 has acted as a barrier more than once now, stopping pushes higher both this week and in June. Even with buyers in control, markets seem unwilling to commit fully unless that line gives way.

We’re keeping a close watch on the cluster between roughly 1.1570 and 1.1580. That’s where demand has frequently returned, and where short-term bullish positions have tended to hold ground. Beneath that, more reference points emerge—technicals like the hourly moving averages, which sit just below. These are the sorts of levels that, if broken, usually point to deeper retreats. Not always dramatic, but enough to knock confidence and inspire a different tone in trading flows.

Resistance Levels And Market Reactions

From a timing perspective, the fact that price has run up sharply, paused, pulled back, and now circles familiar ground is not rare. What matters more is which side gains conviction. When price jumps up, pauses, and refuses to take out resistance properly, what often follows is hesitation—struck between enthusiasm and caution.

What’s been interesting is that resistance hasn’t needed to be precise to matter. The upper range near 1.1630 contains several points from the past that halted earlier rallies. Each one adds weight—in the minds of those watching—to the idea that this is more than a one-off rejection. If bulls push above that convincingly, not just a false break, but hold the move, there’s space ahead without major barriers.

On the downside, vulnerability grows quickly if the key support cluster is breached. The first control zone sits just below 1.1570, but the real risk opens up with a drop through the moving averages. Once that’s gone, selling can feed on itself as traders unwind long positions or look to speculate on downswings.

We lean toward a tactical approach here. Keep risk tight against known levels and don’t chase price into resistance. If there’s a clean break higher with volume and close, we’d normally expect some pick-up in interest. Otherwise, range-bound action or even a deeper reset down to early July’s lows shouldn’t surprise.

Patience helps—you don’t need to force a view. Don’t expect the pair to hold still, but do wait for signs that one side has really gained the upper hand before reacting. Where price is now, we’re close enough to both a ceiling and a floor that quick reactions become more likely, particularly around known technical markers.

In short, supply and demand remain finely balanced. We’ve seen this before: price runs into overhead levels, buyers pause, sellers test—but no one gets proper conviction unless key zones shift hands. For now, we’re scanning price behaviour at those very zones. These are the places that tend to set the tone for sessions ahead.

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