Insights 
VT 
The EURUSD showed an upward trend following a volatile reaction to the US CPI report. Initially, the currency pair rose before encountering resistance at a downward-sloping trendline and the 61.8% retracement. This led to a pullback towards the 50% midpoint at 1.16098, but support was found at 1.1617.
Buyers re-entered and pushed the price higher, with the 100-hour moving average at 1.16435 serving as a pivotal point. A decisive break above this average shifted the bias in favour of the bulls, leveraging it as a launching point for further gains. The EURUSD approached the upper end of recent trading ranges, with today’s high at 1.1696 coming close to last week’s peak of 1.1698.
Crucial Resistance Level
The critical level for traders is the 1.1700 barrier, which, if surpassed, could pave the way towards the next target at the July 24 high of 1.1787. Short-term momentum supports further gains, though resistance is near. Sellers might defend the 1.1700 level, especially after a substantial rebound. Key support levels include the broken 61.8% retracement at 1.16615 and the 100-hour moving average. Staying above these averages is important for maintaining control on the buyers’ side.
As of today, August 12th, 2025, we are watching the EURUSD challenge the critical 1.1700 resistance level. This strength is fueled by last week’s US inflation data, where the July Consumer Price Index came in at 3.1%, slightly below the 3.2% consensus and signaling a cooling US economy. This has put downward pressure on the dollar, giving the euro an advantage.
The technical picture is now supported by fundamentals from the European side as well. Recent comments from European Central Bank officials have reinforced their commitment to keeping rates restrictive, with Eurozone inflation still hovering at 2.8%. This policy divergence with a potentially pausing Federal Reserve underpins the euro’s strength and justifies the bounce from the 100-hour moving average, currently our key pivot point at 1.1643.
We have seen this kind of setup before, specifically during the consolidation in late 2024 around the 1.12 level. Back then, the pair traded sideways for weeks before a shift in central bank guidance triggered a sharp breakout. That experience tells us to watch for a catalyst that could push the pair out of this tight range near 1.1700.
Strategic Options for Traders
For the coming weeks, derivative traders should see a sustained daily close above 1.1700 as a clear bullish signal. This would be the trigger to consider buying call options with a target toward the next major resistance at 1.1787. The key is to wait for confirmation of the breakout rather than trying to anticipate it.
Conversely, should the pair fail at this 1.1700 hurdle, we could see a quick retreat. In that scenario, buying short-term put options on a rejection would target a move back to the 100-hour MA at 1.1643. The most important level to watch is that moving average, as a break below it would signal that the recent buying pressure has faded.
