Insights 
VT 
In the European session, there are scheduled speeches from ECB and BoE officials. However, they are not expected to alter their current positions.
The American session includes the US Durable Goods Orders, final US Q1 GDP, and the US Jobless Claims. The Durable Goods Orders are generally not market-moving due to their volatility. GDP data tends not to influence markets significantly as it reflects outdated information, with markets focused on future expectations.
US Jobless Claims
The US Jobless Claims data is a key indicator of the labour market, providing timely updates on employment trends. The Federal Reserve will consider rate cuts if there is a clear weakening in the labour market amid rising inflation expectations. Initial Claims are forecasted at 245,000, while Continuing Claims are anticipated at 1,950,000.
Despite these numbers, some factors might skew the outcomes, such as seasonal rises in claims during summer and challenges in job-finding due to economic uncertainty. Continuing Claims have recently increased, not necessarily due to layoffs but potential difficulties in job placement.
Scheduled speaker times in GMT include BoE’s Breeden at 08:30, ECB’s de Guindos at 09:45, and ECB’s Schnabel at 11:00, with speeches continuing from Fed and ECB representatives later in the day.
The text outlines several economic events set to unfold today. While central bank officials from Europe are scheduled to speak, there is little anticipation that their remarks will deviate from what they’ve said previously. That is, they are likely to reiterate existing views rather than introduce new policy guidance or change sentiment. In recent months, consistency in statements by figures like Breeden and de Guindos has become the rule rather than the exception. For now, their positions appear well-entrenched and markets have adjusted accordingly.
Attention turns to the United States in the afternoon, with several data points on the docket. Although Durable Goods Orders are on the schedule, the unpredictable nature of this dataset means market participants tend to look past it. There have been frequent revisions and sharp monthly swings, which have dulled the relevance of the initial print. It’s not uncommon for markets to shrug off the headline altogether.
Market Focus and Policy Implications
The final read of Q1 GDP is also due, but the market already has a firm sense of what this will show. Given that it describes the economy’s condition some months ago, it’s more of an historical note than a forward guide. By the time the data is released, investors have usually turned their focus to more live indicators.
Of greater interest is the Jobless Claims release. Weekly claims data is one of the most timely snapshots of employment dynamics available. Forecasts place initial claims in the mid-240,000 range and continuing claims just shy of two million. These levels, while elevated from past months, are not necessarily alarming on their own. The context, however, matters. A gradual rise in the number of individuals staying on jobless benefits does hint at frictions in labour market absorption.
There are known seasonal pressures in late spring and early summer that tend to push claims higher—think of education, tourism, and fixed-term contracts rolling off. This period often brings temporary distortions in labour market numbers, and the challenge becomes trying to separate short-term noise from a genuine trend shift. Several consecutive weeks of higher continuing claims, especially if unaccompanied by notable layoffs, may suggest that displaced workers are indeed struggling to re-enter the workforce.
These developments matter when considered alongside policy expectations. Powell and peers have already placed the labour market under the microscope, with any real softening likely to feed into adjustments at the central bank level. If inflation expectations are pressing upward, but job data begins to wobble in a sustained way, then trade-offs will become more apparent.
As policymakers speak at various intervals during the day, their remarks are likely to be measured. Schnabel and de Guindos will repeat known positions. That’s not to say their comments can be wholly ignored—small wording changes can stir short-dated pricing—but shifts in tone often register more through cumulative signal than in isolated statements.
For participants who rely on short-term rates and volatility, we must remain ready to respond quickly to clear deviations in the data, even if consensus expectations suggest calm. With rates shaping decisions on leverage, positioning should lean into clarity, not guesswork. As durable goods and GDP figures provide background noise, labour market data—clean or messy—is where attention needs focusing.
