Insights 
VT 
The Euro (EUR) may weaken further against the US Dollar (USD), but it is unlikely to breach the major support level at 1.1055. In the long run, while EUR is under pressure, whether the current pullback reaches 1.0945 remains uncertain.
On a 24-hour view, EUR dropped to a 1-1/2-month low at 1.1087, down by 1.42%. Despite oversold conditions, further USD weakening is possible, but breaking the major support at 1.1055 is unlikely. Resistance levels are identified at 1.1120 and 1.1150, which would indicate stabilisation.
One To Three Week Perspective
In a one-to-three-week perspective, last Friday’s shift from neutral to negative outlook anticipated EUR falling towards 1.1145. The decline exceeded expectations, reaching a low of 1.1064. Although downward momentum has grown, the current weakness is seen as part of a pullback, and reaching support at 1.0945 is uncertain. Only a break of 1.1225 suggests easing pressure.
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What the current analysis demonstrates is a downward pull in the Euro’s value against the Dollar, though we’re seeing a fairly strong cluster of support forming around the 1.1055 level. Even with a sudden slump touching 1.1087, the structure beneath that point is robust enough that further rapid declines aren’t projected to slice through it without compelling catalysts. It isn’t about whether the Euro is weakening—it certainly is—but rather how far existing momentum can carry that weakness before counter-forces temper it.
We saw the Euro fall 1.42%, settling near the lowest level in around six weeks. That drop is stark, even if some technical conditions now suggest oversold territory. When viewed through a broader lens though, the probability of continued Dollar strength may reinforce local EUR softness. Yet, resistance at 1.1120 and 1.1150 appears very near the surface. Those zones are important—should price action rebound and climb there, it could indicate a brief footing is being found.
Directional Shift
Now looking ahead one to three weeks, we noticed a directional shift recently. The stance moved from neutral to bearish just before the weekend, and since then the pace of decline has been sharper than initial forecasts. Last week’s expectation was a moderate dip toward 1.1145, but 1.1064 came swiftly, suggesting bearish pressure intensified more than anticipated. Even with this momentum, this move still qualifies more as a short-term retracement than a true reversal of longer-term structure. The idea that the Euro might reach the next lower support around 1.0945 hasn’t yet formed into a high-conviction outcome.
That support below is worth keeping an eye on, but we’d hesitate before planning strategy around its inevitability. Too many assumptions, without fresh catalysts or shifts in macro data, would simply inject excessive exposure to sudden turns. Similarly, if prices manage to press above 1.1225 again, it would be the first solid sign that this current phase of weakness has passed.
From where we sit, the signals are mixed: firm downside action, yes, but not without areas where rebounding price could be met with stiff resistance. This subtle balance leaves very little room to operate overnight with high certainty. Rather, it encourages a trim, reactive posture that adjusts to each incremental change in price behaviour rather than predicting wholesale shifts.
For positioning, one must be very deliberate here. Overleveraging based on presumed directional continuation risks poor entry and frustrated exits when structures such as 1.1055 either hold tight or trap into limited range. These situations usually require trade entry based more on exhaustion cues than momentum chases. For example, until 1.1225 is reclaimed, any upside attempt is likely confined to the zones already mentioned—no further until those resolve.
We continue to monitor short flows into the lower 1.10s and note whether positioning gets uncomfortably crowded. That often hints at pent-up reversal potential that can catch short-duration trades flat-footed. At the same time, assumptions of a bottom forming too early can derail any attempts to carry trades across brief countertrends. One keeps watch of both ends.
As prices walk this narrow line between continued weakening and holding steady, there’s no benefit in over-committing before technical signals align with fundamentals. It’s the type of sequence where technical levels—like 1.1055 and 1.0945—matter more than sentiment or thematic views. It becomes a case of tactical engagements, waiting for pressure build-up or release, rather than chasing fading moves.
