Insights 
VT 
The Euro (EUR) is expected to trade within the range of 1.1590 to 1.1635. Longer-term analysis indicates a potential downward trend, with the possibility of the EUR retesting the 1.1540 level according to UOB Group’s FX analysts.
In the 24-hour view, the EUR dropped to a low of 1.1576 but rebounded, trading within a range of 1.1584 to 1.1620. It closed slightly unchanged at 1.1617, marking a 0.06% increase. The analysts anticipate that the EUR will continue to range-trade between 1.1590 and 1.1635 today.
Over a period of one to three weeks, the analysts noted that downward momentum has been building. Despite this, the EUR has struggled to move significantly lower. The decline in momentum suggests that unless the EUR breaches the 1.1640 resistance level, a move lower toward 1.1540 may not occur.
We observe the EUR/USD is confined to a tight trading range, likely moving between 1.1590 and 1.1635 in the very short term. For traders, this environment suggests strategies that profit from low volatility, such as selling strangles or iron condors with short-term expirations. The key is to capitalize on the pair’s current lack of decisive direction.
Over the next few weeks, however, we see a growing downward bias with a potential test of the 1.1540 support level. This view is reinforced by recent data showing Eurozone manufacturing PMI slipping to 49.2, indicating contraction, while the latest US jobs report from early October 2025 showed a robust addition of 210,000 jobs. This economic divergence favors the US dollar.
Derivative traders should consider positioning for this potential decline by purchasing put options with strike prices near 1.1550 and expirations in mid-November. A more conservative strategy would be a bear put spread to reduce the initial cost, which aligns with the fading downward momentum. Any move above the strong resistance at 1.1640 would be our signal that this downward thesis is no longer valid.
Historically, we’ve seen similar range compressions, like in the third quarter of 2024, which often precede a sharp breakout. Current one-month implied volatility for EUR/USD is hovering near a six-month low of 6.1%, making options relatively inexpensive. This presents a well-priced opportunity to position for a larger move before volatility potentially expands.
