Insights 
VT 
The United States Energy Information Administration reported a natural gas storage change of 74 billion cubic feet. This figure is above the projected 71 billion cubic feet for October 24.
The EUR/USD has fallen below 1.16 amidst a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve and a hold from the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains stable as expectations for a December rate cut decline.
Currency Movements and Gold Prices
In currency movements, the USD/CHF is steady near a two-week high. Gold prices have increased as a Federal Reserve cut neutralises the hawkish tone from Jerome Powell.
The New Zealand dollar has seen a retreat due to the strength of the US dollar. In contrast, Zcash continues to gain momentum as bulls target $400.
Information contained in this text involves risks and uncertainties inherent in investment. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not serve as a recommendation for purchasing or selling assets.
The natural gas storage injection of 74 billion cubic feet (Bcf) came in above the 71 Bcf expectation, signaling a well-supplied market. This confirms our view that supply is outpacing demand as we exit the injection season. This should put downward pressure on front-month futures contracts in the immediate term.
Natural Gas Market Outlook
This latest build pushed total U.S. working gas in storage to over 3,850 Bcf. Looking at recent data, this level is more than 6% above the five-year average for late October, which sits around 3,620 Bcf. This comfortable supply cushion reduces the market’s fear of a winter shortage for now.
For derivative traders, this suggests a bearish stance is warranted over the next few weeks. We are looking at strategies like buying December or January put options to profit from a potential price drop with limited risk. Selling out-of-the-money call spreads is another viable strategy to collect premium while the supply overhang weighs on the market.
Of course, everything now hinges on early winter weather, which remains the primary driver of volatility. Current NOAA forecasts for November 2025 are pointing towards average to slightly warmer-than-average temperatures across the key heating regions of the Midwest and Northeast. Without an early cold snap, there is little to support higher prices.
We must remain cautious, however, as we have seen how quickly this market can turn, such as the major price spike in November 2018 when an early cold blast caught the market off guard. A sudden shift in the forecast to sustained below-freezing temperatures would quickly change this outlook. Therefore, any short positions should be managed with tight stop-losses.
The broader market context of a strong U.S. dollar and a cautious Federal Reserve may also cap any significant commodity rallies. With gold trading above $4,000, capital appears to be favoring safe havens over energy markets that face a bearish supply picture. This reinforces the case for a defensive or short-biased approach to natural gas derivatives.
