Today, 18 August 2025, marks a quiet day in economic data release, contrasted with an otherwise slow week.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the sole release is the July Business Services Index.
Economic Indicators Release
During the upcoming EU/US session, the NAHB Housing Market Index is set for release, indicating the level of confidence in the housing market.
However, the highlight of the week remains the Jackson Hole symposium.
Central to this is Powell’s speech, scheduled for 15:00 BST (09:00 EDT), where discussions about the labour market are anticipated.
This week is shaping up to be quiet until the main event, creating a classic “calm before the storm” scenario. With major economic data thin on the ground until Friday, we are seeing implied volatility, as measured by the VIX index, hovering near a relatively low 15. This suggests the market is in a holding pattern, which often presents opportunities to position for a potential volatility spike.
Expectations for Powell’s Speech
The focus for everyone is squarely on Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this Friday. Historically, these speeches have been major market movers; we only have to look back to his brief, hawkish speech in August 2022 that sent markets tumbling. Any deviation from the expected script this year could easily trigger a significant repricing across asset classes.
We will be watching his interpretation of the labor market, especially after the latest data showed a cooling but still resilient picture. The July jobs report from earlier this month showed Non-Farm Payrolls adding 175,000 jobs, slightly below consensus, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. Powell’s tone on whether this slowdown is sufficient for the Fed’s goals will be the key driver for markets.
For derivatives traders, this setup makes long volatility strategies look attractive in the coming days. Buying straddles or strangles on major indices like the SPX ahead of Friday could pay off if Powell delivers a surprise. These positions benefit from a large price move in either direction, making them suitable for binary events like this speech.
While today’s NAHB Housing Market Index is the only notable release, it likely won’t move the needle much. The index has been struggling below the key 50-level for months, reflecting how higher interest rates have impacted the sector. It simply adds another piece to the economic puzzle Powell will be addressing at the end of the week.
