Insights 
VT 
The ECB wage growth tracker reveals that negotiated wage growth with smoothed one-off payments is expected to be 4.6% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. For the initial half of 2026, the wage tracker estimates a growth rate of 1.7%.
This represents a decrease from the second half of 2025, which was 2.1%, and the first half of 2025, which was 4.3%. Stable wage growth assists the ECB in maintaining inflation stability close to their target in conditions free from economic shocks.
Cooling Wage Pressures In Eurozone
We are seeing new data that suggests wage pressures in the Eurozone are cooling down significantly. The latest tracker points to negotiated wage growth falling to 3.2% for all of 2025 and then dropping sharply to just 1.7% in the first half of 2026. This is a major change from the 4.3% wage growth we experienced in the first half of this year.
This information strengthens the case for the European Central Bank to become more dovish. With the latest inflation figures from August 2025 already moderating to 2.3%, this wage data removes a key obstacle for future rate cuts. We remember how the aggressive rate hikes of 2023 and 2024 were driven by fears of a wage-price spiral, and this new data suggests that fear is fading.
For traders, this points towards positioning for lower interest rates for longer than the market currently expects. We should consider receiving fixed rates on Euro interest rate swaps, betting that market rates will fall further. Options that profit from a fall in bond yields, such as buying calls on German Bund futures, also look more attractive now.
Impact On The Euro
The outlook for the Euro is also impacted, as lower rate expectations typically weaken a currency against peers like the US dollar. Derivative strategies could involve buying put options on the EUR/USD, giving the right to sell the Euro at a set price if it falls. This allows for profiting from a potential decline while limiting the initial risk.
All eyes will now be on the upcoming ECB meeting on October 23rd for any change in their official tone. We expect market pricing for rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 to increase in the coming weeks. Any speeches from ECB officials before then will be watched closely for hints that they share this view of cooling wage pressures.
