Insights 
VT 
The European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking, also known as the Sintra Forum, is an annual policy conference. Held in Sintra, Portugal, it emulates the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium and began in 2014.
The event gathers central bankers, academics, market economists, and policymakers worldwide. Its focus is on discussing long-term policy challenges, monetary strategy, inflation dynamics, structural shifts, and global macroeconomic risks.
Theme For The 2025 Forum
The theme for the 2025 forum is “Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses.” Scheduled from 30 June to 2 July, the event will commence with a speech from European Central Bank President Lagarde at 1730 GMT on 30 June. On Tuesday, other leading figures in global central banking, such as Powell, Ueda, and Bailey, will also deliver their insights.
The ECB’s annual gathering in Sintra aims to foster open discussion among notable figures in monetary policy and academic research, echoing the structure of Jackson Hole but with a Eurozone lens. Each year, it becomes a touchstone for how central bankers view broader macroeconomic currents—not only within Europe, but across the globe.
This year’s theme hints at the organisers’ priorities: a shift is no longer theoretical—it’s already underway. Policymakers are not only assessing adaptations to inflation patterns or demographic change, but also reworking the tools they’ve relied on for decades. Rates, balance sheets, and forward guidance are being reevaluated. As the preliminary speech from Lagarde opens the forum, markets will likely pay close attention not only to what is said, but the tone in which it’s delivered.
Powell, Ueda, and Bailey will contribute their own perspectives on the state of global economic conditions and the resilience of their domestic monetary frameworks. Traders looking at rates and futures need to recognise that these interventions, while theoretical on the surface, tend to bleed into actual market moves very quickly—especially when outlooks diverge.
When interpreting the comments that appear over the three-day forum, it’s important to connect them not just to familiar inflation targets, but also to central banks’ prioritisation of growth, labour markets, and financial stability. We believe that any mention of wage-setting behaviour, energy price transmission, or shifts in neutral interest rates should be monitored closely. These are not passing comments, but rather indicators of policy recalibrations.
Implications Beyond Speeches
It would not be wise to focus merely on headline forecasts. Watch for any changes in how these speakers describe the risks around their baseline scenarios. If Lagarde or Powell, for instance, presents a more asymmetric view of growth versus inflation, that’s often where policy divergence begins—or where it closes.
We also expect increased discussion on the time lags that policy tightening continues to show. This isn’t just about reaffirming rate levels. It’s about acknowledging when persistence in tight conditions may risk overtightening—and how willing central banks are to reverse course without appearing reactive.
A proper read of the situation doesn’t come from the speeches alone. Panels and Q&As, where prepared remarks often give way to candour, tend to offer more subtle detail. What is not explicitly said can often carry weight when markets are scanning for the next shift.
For pricing volatility in the next few weeks, we assume that any firm signals on where longer-term rate expectations sit will matter more than near-term language. If there is talk—direct or indirect—about dropping rate hikes from forward guidance or slowing down asset rolloffs, that might drive two-way action in the curves.
Pay special attention to coordination or fragmentation in the messaging across speakers. When views begin to bifurcate, it gives us early signs of which central banks are more data-dependent and which have already drawn out their expected trajectory. This has implications not just for FX and rates, but for how correlations behave as well.
Forward volatility and options volume often spike when forums like these leave more open questions than answers. And given how dated some economic models have become with the new inflation and wage realities, there’s little reason to expect easy consensus.
From our side, that means watching for fresh language patterns—not recycled phrasing. Clues come in the details: does anyone mention “policy buffers”? Do we hear anything new on balance sheet runoff or neutral real rates? These are not semantic quirks—they are strategic tells.
So, although the calendar is heavy, and the speeches may seem polished, the implications are real—and frequently felt within days of the event concluding.
