Insights 
VT 
During the European morning session on June 9, 2025, the markets were mostly quiet ahead of the US-China trade talks scheduled to take place in London. The White House economic director stated that discussions would focus on easing rare earth export controls and assured progress, even if brief.
US futures remained upbeat, with S&P 500 futures rising by 0.2% after a flat start. However, European indices stayed slightly down during the session.
Forex Market Movements
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar weakened initially but recovered some ground later. The USD/JPY dipped to around 144.00 before climbing back to 144.43, down 0.3% for the day. EUR/USD climbed to about 1.1440 earlier but settled to a 0.1% increase at 1.1410.
The Australian dollar performed well, with AUD/USD climbing 0.5% to 0.6520, looking to break past the 0.6500 level. Elsewhere, gold inched up to $3,320, while silver led the commodities market with a 1% rise to $36.31.
Attention now turns to the outcomes of the US-China trade talks in London.
What we’ve seen in recent sessions is a gentle lull across most asset classes, largely driven by a cautious stance from investors awaiting clarity from the US-China negotiations. The low volatility throughout the European morning is telling. It’s not due to lack of interest, but hesitation ahead of dialogues that stand to impact industrial resource supply chains, particularly those connected to rare earths. That much was made clear by comments from the White House’s chief economic adviser, suggesting movement—even incremental—is in the works.
Market Sentiment and Strategy
Market optimism, however modest, revealed itself in US futures, with the S&P 500 edging up as traders began to price in a more constructive tone from both sides. European stocks didn’t share that momentum and remained restrained. For many participants, this divergence flags a mild preference for US exposure, perhaps tied to relative policy stability—or simply a reflection of broader confidence in earnings resilience.
In currencies, the yen’s strength was fleeting. A short-lived dip in USD/JPY around 144.00 quickly reversed, hinting at low conviction in chasing safe-haven currencies while talks play out. That reversal mattered. It showed us there was no rush for hedging against tail risks, at least not with long yen positions. The euro sustained a small uptick versus the dollar but struggled to hold above 1.1440. In past reactions, such price action often signalled thin conviction rather than a new trend in motion.
By contrast, the Australian dollar has stood out. A 0.5% gain against the greenback and a firm hold above 0.6500 above suggests resilience, likely reflecting stronger demand for regional commodities and a stabilising outlook in Pacific trading partners. That level mattered. We tend to interpret breaks above psychologically important thresholds like 0.6500 as stronger signals when paired with volume support.
In metals, gold’s marginal rise to $3,320 was less noteworthy than silver’s sharper climb. A 1% rise puts silver back on the radar and might encourage some rotational flow from more traditional hedges. The pricing in silver often reacts more quickly to trade outlooks. Traders appear to be looking here for clues on broader sentiment tied to manufacturing and industrial frameworks.
So where does this lead us? For those running leveraged positions or directional plays in rates-sensitive or cross-border instruments, it may be worth watching how tightly these moves are aligned to headline releases from the sessions in London. The absence of large intraday swings today doesn’t mean a lack of information. In fact, it tells us that many are poised, with orders likely lined up just beyond current ranges. We should be alert for sharp reactions.
Metrics like short gamma near popular strike levels in currency pairs, and tension visible in rate vol surface skews, could become more useful than traditional flow data this week. If adjustments come, they’ll likely do so quickly and without much warning.
Traders might consider being more selective with timing, staying aware of London headline risk especially during overlap hours with New York. We’ve noticed activity tends to spike not only around planned press releases, but also following clarifications or corrections to earlier comments. In those moments, price moves have shown a habit of overshooting.
Those currently running FX-volatility strategies may wish to scale exposure slowly, particularly in dollar pairs, keeping sensitivity settings switched more closely to short-term announcements than broader trends. It’s not a time to disengage, but it may not be the best period to chase. Markets in this setup have a tendency to punish impatience.
