AUD/JPY is currently exploring levels below 94.50, with the nine-day EMA at 94.45 acting as an initial support point. The currency pair is within an ascending channel, with a potential to approach the five-month high at 95.75.

The 14-day RSI slightly above the 50 level indicates a bullish trend, although the price movement remains neutral around the nine-day EMA. A break above 95.75 could see the currency testing the psychological level of 96.00.

Conversely, a decline below the nine-day EMA could target the 50-day EMA at 93.69. Further declines might approach a support level at 93.40, weakening the bullish outlook.

Aud Decreases Against Majors

AUD has shown a decrease against major currencies, being weakest against the Swiss Franc. Percentage changes reveal a 0.36% drop against the US Dollar, a 0.23% decrease against Euro, and a 0.31% reduction against the Swiss Franc.

The heat map showcases percentage shifts between major currencies, with the base currency from the left column and the quote on the top row. Data includes AUD decreasing 0.23% relative to USD and 0.15% compared to JPY.

The recent moves in AUD/JPY reflect a period of hesitation embedded within the broader context of an upward sloping channel. Currently navigating areas just beneath 94.50, the pair appears temporarily held by the nine-day EMA at 94.45, which is providing short-term structural support. The RSI, though subtly perched above 50, lacks follow-through at present, signalling reduced momentum without suggesting an immediate reversal.

Price interactions around the exponential moving averages should be monitored closely. A sustained break above the upper line of the bullish channel—and notably beyond the five-month high of 95.75—would open the door to challenge the psychologically important handle of 96.00. These levels may serve as magnetic targets if upward pressure intensifies in tandem with a rising RSI.

Monitoring Support And Resistance Levels

However, slips beneath the nine-day moving average warrant attention, particularly if the next technical line—the 50-day EMA at 93.69—cannot contain selling pressure. Should that level give way, the pair could slide toward 93.40, a support point from earlier sessions, which if breached, would likely prompt a reassessment of directional bias. In such a case, any bounce attempts might struggle to regain recent highs.

The underlying driver behind AUD’s recent pullback is not isolated to this pair alone. Across majors, it’s been underperforming—with a modest 0.36% loss against the US Dollar and 0.31% versus CHF. CHF remains the strongest counterpart, and this is reflected in the cross charts. The 0.15% dip versus JPY in today’s sessions, while relatively muted, aligns with the general picture of headwind for the Aussie.

Short-term flows and sentiment continue to guide these tactical moves more than macro releases. There’s little room for assumption; actual price confirmation must always underpin position entries. For now, the reward-risk balance shifts favourably only if price action convinces above recent highs. Until then, watching for support breaks and aligning exposure accordingly could limit downside vulnerability.

In our view, we remain guided by structurally relevant levels—the moving averages and key psychologic lines—as context for options hedging and position durations through to mid-month. Momentum hasn’t given a clear go-ahead. So, with implied volatility anchored and no clear directional impulse, taking clues from each daily close remains our reference point.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.