Insights 
VT 
AUD/JPY is currently trading around 94.10, aligning slightly above the nine-day EMA at 93.99. The currency pair finds initial support at this level, with the potential to approach the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 95.20.
The 14-day RSI remains above 50, indicating a continued bullish trend. If prices break below the nine-day EMA, short-term momentum may weaken, targeting the 50-day EMA at 93.32 and the lower boundary around 92.80.
Potential Upside and Downside
On the upside, surpassing the ascending channel could lead AUD/JPY to the three-month high of 95.65 reached in May. Conversely, if the pair slides below 92.80, it may head toward the low of 91.50, last seen on May 1.
The Australian Dollar is displayed in a heat map detailing percentage changes against major currencies, showing weakness against the Swiss Franc. The heat map compares percentage changes, with the base currency from the left column and the quote currency from the top row, detailing movements in major currency pairs.
From what we’re seeing, AUD/JPY is showing resilience just above its nine-day EMA, and that tells us where momentum is currently leaning. Prices hovering near 94.10, right above 93.99, suggest the short-term bias remains pointed upwards, especially with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still holding its ground above the 50 mark. That level on the RSI typically acts as a dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. As long as it stands firm, it supports further upside in the near term.
The ascending price channel, which the pair continues to respect, offers a directional guide. Think of it as a short-term roadmap. As long as prices remain within the channel, we’re looking at a market that’s not ready to reverse yet. If the pair manages to push beyond the top of that channel around 95.20—and here’s where we really need to be keeping an eye out—it opens the way toward May’s peak at 95.65. Momentum could accelerate in that case, especially if backed by broader risk appetite or interest rate differentials expanding in favour of the Australian Dollar.
Monitoring Key Levels
But we have to be equally attentive to lower levels. The nine-day EMA acts as the first line of defence. If it breaks, support could shift toward the 50-day EMA near 93.32. That would be more than just a small pullback; it could flag exhaustion in short-term bullishness. Below that, the base of the current structure lies closer to 92.80. This level has held previously, so it’s worth marking on the chart. A move under that support may extend downward to 91.50, last reached at the beginning of May. That’s not just a technical footnote—it indicates a potential shift in sentiment.
Meanwhile, if we view this pair through the lens of cross-currency moves, there are external tells. The heat map—comparing the Aussie Dollar against its major peers—shows some softness versus the Swiss Franc. While that’s a different pairing, it subtly flags weakening demand for the Australian Dollar in defensive settings. When investors are less willing to hold high beta currencies like AUD in favour of traditionally safer ones such as CHF, it hints at broader risk recalibration. That matters, especially in quiet markets or during periods when capital rotation is at play.
The aim here is not to overreact to each tick but to read the behaviour around these EMAs and price channels with a bit more finesse. Price doesn’t move randomly. It clusters, it tests, and it reacts. Watching these levels with the understanding of how participants often place stops and entries around them makes a difference. We need to treat these zones with attention, not just as passive indicators but as active battlegrounds for short-term expectations.
In practice, it means decisions should be timed with intent. It’s not about chasing every move—nobody wins that game for long. Rather, it’s about preparing scenarios around the upper and lower boundaries, defining risk in advance, and staying alert to shifts in bias.
