Insights 
VT 
In September, Canada’s Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) increased to 0.2% from 0%, reflecting a change in consumer prices. This measure indicates the inflation trend by excluding volatile products such as food and energy.
Gold saw a decline, revisiting multi-day lows near $4,120 per troy ounce, influenced by a stronger US Dollar and reduced enthusiasm in the US-China trade situation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP also faced declines as global markets navigated ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, further strained by the prolonged US government shutdown.
Shifts In The Economic Landscape
Despite relief over the state of the global economy outperforming earlier expectations amid US tariff impacts, underlying shifts bring unease. These changes in the economic landscape could have long-term implications that remain poorly understood.
Furthermore, over the past five years, there has been a 99% plunge in trends within Bitcoin treasuries, with Bitcoin increasingly seen as a reserve asset. This shift is evident both on company balance sheets and in government treasuries, highlighting the evolving corporate asset ownership landscape.
With Canadian core inflation ticking up to 0.2% last month, we see a potential divergence in central bank policy. The Bank of Canada may feel pressure to stay firm, while the US Fed is preoccupied with the ongoing government shutdown. Traders should be looking at options on the USD/CAD pair to capitalize on any policy surprises over the next few weeks.
The sharp drop in gold towards $4,100 appears to be driven by a stronger US dollar, which is acting as a temporary safe haven amidst the shutdown. After peaking above $4,300 during the South China Sea tensions earlier this year, this pullback looks like profit-taking. We believe put options on major gold ETFs offer a defined-risk way to play a further slide towards the $4,000 psychological level.
Anxious Relief In The Economy
There is a sense of anxious relief, as the global economy has absorbed shocks better than we expected back in the spring. However, with the US government shutdown now entering its fourth week and Q4 GDP forecasts being cut below 0.5%, this calm feels fragile. The VIX index has fallen to 19, making call options on volatility an inexpensive hedge against the underlying tectonic shifts mentioned.
Crypto markets are clearly in a risk-off phase, with Bitcoin and Ethereum following equities lower. The plunge in institutional inflows is a major warning sign, as data shows corporate treasury inflows fell from a monthly average of over $2 billion in 2024 to just $20 million in September 2025. This suggests derivative traders should be cautious, using futures to hedge existing positions or buying puts to speculate on a test of lower support levels.
