Insights 
VT 
In September, Singapore’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 0.6%. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank’s minutes dispelled concerns about prolonged negative inflation.
The USD/CAD remains below 1.4000, testing the lower boundary of the ascending channel, indicating potential pressure. The EUR/USD slipped to near 1.1600 as the US Dollar strengthens due to trade tensions.
Oil And Forex Market Dynamics
WTI oil prices climbed above $60.00 as US sanctions impact Russian crude supplies. The GBP/USD is constrained near 1.3350 due to the strengthening US Dollar and potential Bank of England rate cuts.
Gold prices increased above $4,100 amid geopolitical tensions and a possible US government shutdown. T. Rowe Price filed for a cryptocurrency ETF as it navigates regulatory delays.
Japan’s yen steadies with the appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister, as markets consider fiscal and monetary policy shifts. Lastly, Pi Network’s token trades over $0.2000, showing potential for an upside breakout from its descending triangle pattern.
Given the fresh trade tensions and a US government shutdown, we are seeing a classic flight to safety. This is boosting the US Dollar and pushing gold prices toward record highs, with gold now trading above $4,100 per ounce. Derivative traders should anticipate continued volatility, favoring strategies that benefit from a strong dollar and risk-off sentiment.
Monetary And Fiscal Policies
The pressure on currencies like the Euro and the Pound is clear, with EUR/USD testing 1.1600 and GBP/USD struggling at 1.3350. We are seeing increased bets on a Bank of England rate cut in December, especially as UK inflation finally dipped below the 2% target earlier this year for the first time since 2021. This monetary policy divergence will likely keep weighing on the Pound against the dollar.
In Asia, the picture is mixed, creating opportunities for pair trades. The slightly higher-than-expected inflation in Singapore suggests some economic resilience, even as core inflation has fallen significantly from the 4.2% average we saw back in 2023. Meanwhile, Japan’s new Prime Minister is creating uncertainty for the Yen, as markets weigh expansionary fiscal policy against the Bank of Japan’s gradual normalization path started in 2024.
Commodity markets reflect this geopolitical tension, but also underlying demand concerns. While US sanctions on Russian crude are supporting WTI oil prices above $60, this level remains well below the $80-$90 range seen during parts of 2023, suggesting fears of a global slowdown are capping the upside. Traders should watch inventory data closely as a gauge of real-time demand destruction.
Even in this risk-averse climate, institutional interest in digital assets has not disappeared. T. Rowe Price’s filing for a crypto ETF signals that major players are still positioning for the long term, despite regulatory delays from the government shutdown. This suggests that while near-term trading is dominated by macro fears, underlying structural shifts in finance are continuing.
