Insights 
VT 
The UK’s BRC Shop Price Index year-on-year saw a decrease, dropping from 1.4% to 1% in October. This marks a change in the pricing trends observed in British retail markets.
Elsewhere, the gold market displayed a fluctuation due to various factors. A bounce off a two-week low was noted, reflecting the impact of a weaker USD and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Surge In Cryptocurrency
In the realm of cryptocurrency, the official Trump memecoin experienced a surge of over 20%. This was subsequent to the acquisition of 1,414 BTC, valued at over $160 million, by American Bitcoin.
Trade sentiment shifted as the USD’s trust waned, prompting a transition to assets like gold and Bitcoin. Concurrently, the USD/CAD pair stayed below the 1.4000 mark amid a dovish Federal Reserve stance.
Lastly, notable shifts occurred in the energy sector, with WTI crude oil prices declining to nearly $61.00. This was in anticipation of OPEC+’s decision to raise production in their upcoming meeting.
The latest UK shop price index shows inflation slowing to 1.0%, confirming the disinflationary trend we have seen building for months. This follows the official September 2025 Consumer Price Index data from the ONS, which showed a headline rate of 2.1%, down from 2.4% the month prior. For traders, this cooling price pressure suggests the Bank of England may hold rates steady, which could limit further strength in the GBP/USD pair currently hovering near 1.3300.
Dominant Market Driver
The dominant market driver right now is the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its upcoming meeting. Looking at the CME FedWatch Tool, we can see that futures markets are pricing in an over 85% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. This is fueling broad-based US Dollar weakness and explains the recent gains in pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/USD.
This dovish Fed stance provides a tailwind for Gold, even as progress in US-China trade talks caps its potential. We are watching to see if Gold can hold support at the $3,973 level and reclaim the 21-day moving average near $4,061. The performance of Gold since it broke its previous all-time highs back in 2024 suggests that dips driven by risk-on sentiment have been buying opportunities.
In energy markets, crude oil is showing weakness, with WTI dropping towards $61 a barrel. This is not driven by demand fears but by clear signals that OPEC+ is preparing to increase production quotas at its next formal meeting. After holding output steady for most of the year, this would mark a significant policy shift that could pressure prices further in the short term.
We are also seeing continued evidence of a “Great Debasement” trade, as trust in the US Dollar pushes investors toward alternatives. The recent purchase of $160 million in Bitcoin by American Bitcoin is a prime example of this institutional rotation. This trend suggests that call options on assets like Bitcoin and Gold could be an effective way to position for further long-term US Dollar depreciation.
