Insights 
VT 
The AUDUSD is currently moving higher, testing the 200-day moving average. Previous efforts to sustain momentum above the moving average earlier this week were unsuccessful, resulting in corrective moves downward.
Yesterday, the pair experienced declines influenced by dollar buying following US/China tariff announcements, which it reversed today. Asian and early European trading sessions saw upward movements as the pair tested the 100-hour moving average and the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart.
CPI Data Impact
The release of CPI data provided additional upward momentum, allowing the pair to surpass these moving averages and the 200-hour moving average at 0.64307. Presently, the AUDUSD is testing the 200-day moving average at 0.64579.
The continuation of this upward momentum is dependent on the pair’s ability to maintain these gains. Future rebounds would need to exceed previous highs, including the May 5 high of 0.6493.
At present, we see the pair pressing up against one of the most widely observed technical indicators—the 200-day moving average. Earlier in the week, attempts to hold above this level fizzled out rather quickly, which triggered a wave of selling as short-term traders likely lost confidence and began to unwind positions. The slide that followed wasn’t especially deep, but it showed hesitancy to build on gains beyond the longer-term average.
Then came the expected CPI numbers, which turned out slightly softer than previously forecast. That shift in inflation data offered some breathing room for risk-sensitive assets, particularly those influenced by sentiment towards commodity currencies. In response, the pair pushed through several shorter-term averages—a constructive signal if it’s reinforced by follow-through. We noticed the recovery overlapped with Asian market participation, which often flags directional intent during overnight sessions.
Focus on 200 Day Average
Having now breached both the 100-hour and 200-hour thresholds, the focus turns squarely to whether price can gather enough support to build above the 200-day level—currently a visible pivot point. The fact that bulls reversed course so swiftly post-data, shrugging off the previous day’s weakness sparked by fresh tariff concerns, points to an underlying resilience in the near term. Price action around 0.6458 is therefore instructive: it’s not simply a test of resistance, but of resolve.
Victory over this figure in the hours ahead could place upward pressure on those who were short from earlier in the week and have yet to adjust. Above lies May’s high around 0.6493, which now functions as a practical barometer of short-term enthusiasm. If we see clean movement beyond that level, risk-taking will likely be emboldened, and momentum strategies might follow suit.
Our own positioning should now pay close attention not only to intraday levels but also to order flow around failed breaks. Failures near today’s highs without strong volume support could suggest limited appetite in the short run. In that case, the 200-hour average, just under 0.6431, should be monitored as a likely retracement level; a drop below there would put control back into the hands of those leaning on prior resistance and reintroduce the 100-hour average as a possible attractor.
Rather than treating this as a directional regime shift, it may be more practical to consider the setup as reactive, with each move inviting reassessment. We will watch for signs of conviction—beyond just headline-driven momentum—to determine if there’s staying power in this reversal. Until then, setups should be short-lived, watched closely for signs that the broader market is willing to commit, not merely testing boundaries with limited interest.
