The AUDUSD experienced a reversal after reaching a new high, which was not seen since November. This reversal has added a cautious tone to the short-term outlook, as the currency pair now trades below the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, marked at around 0.6484.

Sellers are focused on maintaining pressure below this level, with attention on the rising trend line support and the 200-bar moving average, located between 0.6450 and 0.6459. A breach below these supports may lead to a deeper drop towards 0.6407 or further.

Resistance And Support Levels

Resistance is noted in the yellow band between 0.6553 and 0.6565. As long as prices remain under the 100-bar moving average and the resistance zone, the tendency favours the sellers in exploring lower price levels.

This brief assessment tells us something simple: momentum for the Australian dollar against its US counterpart has cooled. Price had pushed to highs not seen since last November, a level suggesting strength. But that move didn’t hold. In fact, it reversed – and fairly cleanly – pointing to a market that stepped back before taking things further.

We’re now trading beneath the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, which sits around 0.6484. It’s a technical measure, calculated over 100 candlesticks, and it’s often used as a median point for recent price action. When the spot rate is below it, we can justifiably say that over the last few trading windows, momentum has pointed to the downside.

Market Analysis And Strategy

From our vantage, sellers are now looking to defend that level. Keeping prices below it makes sense as far as maintaining control. The logic is methodical: if the pair doesn’t break back above, bullish confidence remains diluted.

Ahead of us, there’s attention on a rising trend line and the 200-bar moving average, hemmed in between 0.6450 and 0.6459. The trend line shows a longer-running slope that previously supported buying interest. The 200-bar level is a slower, smoothing average, typically watched as a line in the sand between medium-term strength and weakness.

If price falls underneath both of those, a move lower is convincingly on the table. We’re looking then at the 0.6407 area. That’s not a small step down. It’s a retracement level of sorts and may act as a potential resting point, but not before carrying weight as a target for bears.

Flip the coin and look above: resistance is tight around the 0.6553 to 0.6565 range. It’s not far from where we recently failed. The yellow area isn’t arbitrary—it’s been marked by preceding reaction highs and short bursts of selling that pushed price south again upon reach. Unless there’s a clear break and hold above it, short-term sentiment won’t shift.

For those of us navigating derivatives in this space, the underlying message matters: odds favour pressing lower. The chart structure reflects that. Pullbacks, if any, towards the averages or resistance are better viewed as opportunities to reassess downside protection rather than adding upside risk.

We should note that there’s still some breathing room, particularly while the support line and secondary moving average haven’t snapped. However, positioning should be done with clear awareness of how much room there is to fall, versus how little it would take for the pattern to flip, should resistance give way or broader economic signals surprise us.

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