Insights 
VT 
The economic calendar for Asia on Tuesday, 9 September 2025, features events with no major impact expected on foreign exchange movements.
Data releases for New Zealand and Australia are noted, as their flags can be easily mixed up.
Focus on Global Picture
With the Asian calendar looking quiet for tomorrow, September 9th, we shouldn’t expect scheduled data to be the main driver for currencies. This lack of local news pushes our focus toward the broader global picture and statements from major central banks. The real story for the coming weeks will likely be written outside of Asia.
Our attention remains fixed on the Federal Reserve, especially after the latest US Core PCE inflation data for August came in at 2.8%. While this is a big improvement from the highs we saw back in 2022, it’s still stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, keeping them cautious. This data dependency means any unscheduled comments from Fed officials could easily spark volatility.
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is facing a difficult balancing act with inflation at 2.5% and the latest composite PMI for the Eurozone sitting at a contractionary 48.5. This weak growth suggests they can’t afford to be too aggressive, creating uncertainty for the euro. Traders should be wary of this fragility in the European economy.
This environment, where scheduled data is thin but underlying central bank tension is high, often leads to compressed implied volatility. This can make option strategies, which bet on a future price move rather than its direction, look relatively cheap. We are looking at a market that is quiet on the surface but could move sharply on a single headline.
Watch for Volatility
Therefore, the smart play is to monitor yields on US Treasuries, as they continue to heavily influence pairs like USD/JPY more than Japanese data itself. We saw how sensitive the yen was to moves in US rates throughout 2023 and 2024, and that dynamic has not changed. The Bank of Japan remains cautious, leaving the yen vulnerable to external forces.
In the coming weeks, we should be prepared for volatility to return not from a data print on a calendar, but from an unexpected speech or headline. Watch for any comments regarding future policy from central bankers later this week. A quiet calendar is not the same as a stable market.
