Insights 
VT 
The United States Export Price Index showed a Year-on-Year decrease to 1.7% in May, down from the previous rate of 2%. This suggests a slowdown in the rate of growth for the prices of goods exported from the United States.
EUR/USD experienced a decline, falling to weekly lows around the 1.1470 price zone. The US Dollar gained strength amid comments from President Trump regarding the Middle East crisis, indicating potential US actions against Iran.
Cautious Market Sentiment
GBP/USD approached the 1.3400 level, its lowest in three weeks, due to a cautious market atmosphere. Tensions in the Middle East influenced by Trump’s comments kept the USD resilient against other currencies ahead of key central bank decisions.
Gold prices remained below $3,400 as traders hesitated to engage heavily before the Federal Reserve’s policy announcements. Additionally, Bitcoin’s price slightly decreased to around $106,000 after news of Trump leaving the G7 summit to address the Iran-Israel conflict.
Chinese data for May was mixed, with strong retail sales but weaker figures for fixed-asset investment and property prices. Overall, the data indicates that China is on target to reach its growth goals for the first half of 2025.
That the United States Export Price Index has declined on a yearly basis to 1.7% from 2% simply means that the rate at which export prices are increasing has slowed. It’s still growth, but not at the same pace. From our perspective, this reveals an easing in external price pressures coming from the US — something that we need to be mindful of if we’re watching inflation-linked instruments or considering how disinflationary trends abroad might ripple through forward pricing elsewhere.
The downward movement in EUR/USD, slipping towards the 1.1470 range, reflects renewed demand for the greenback. This came as markets responded to heightened geopolitical concerns, specifically comments from Trump regarding Iran. These comments have not only raised political alarms but also inserted volatility back into foreign exchange desks. Risk-off tones like this tend to favour the US Dollar. That’s a pattern that has long been observed, and currently remains valid, especially with energy markets similarly jittery.
We observed GBP/USD edge lower to levels near 1.3400, not a dramatic selloff, but enough to say sentiment is leaning cautious. The pairing has softened further into levels we last saw three weeks ago. That drop perhaps carries more weight once placed next to elevated risk aversion and the impending central bank meetings. It’s likely that positioning is growing defensive — not just in Sterling, but across several key pairings.
As for gold, prices have been trading under the $3,400 level. That level, which previously held as a foundation for momentum trades, is now showing signs of wear. Most have refrained from placing new weighty bets ahead of the Fed’s policy stance. The general hesitancy reflects an unwillingness to commit capital until there’s greater clarity — and rightly so. Such stalling frequently occurs ahead of high-impact monetary events. It may be worth reassessing exposure here, particularly for volatility-linked structures.
Bitcoin also slipped a touch, moving closer to $106,000 after Trump’s abrupt departure from the G7. The departure itself, while political in surface nature, introduced fast uncertainty across risk-on assets, Bitcoin included. Any sudden political shift like this continues to demonstrate that price stability in digital markets remains tightly tethered to larger global themes — perhaps more so than many are willing to admit.
Mixed Economic Data In China
Turning to China, May’s data came through as a mixture. Retail sales appeared strong, suggesting that domestic demand within China is staying firm. However, weaker fixed-asset investment and falling property prices do bring forward certain questions — especially for those of us focusing on longer-term commodity demand or trade-sensitive exposure. That said, the aggregate readings suggest that China remains on track for its upcoming growth objectives, at least through mid-2025. That’s material, as it provides a backbone to regional confidence, keeping Asian equities broadly supported. It also gives us valuable signals on copper positioning and shipping-related derivatives.
Looking at the week ahead, action may remain skewed toward central bank rhetoric and geopolitical headlines. Hence, being nimble — both in exposure and execution — may help weather the choppy conditions. This is not a week to assume calm will prevail. Spread sensitivity remains heightened, and the short-term reaction functions are becoming increasingly frequent in response to non-economic cues.
