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The Nifty 50 index is a key benchmark for India’s stock market, comprising 50 major companies on the National Stock Exchange. This video focuses on analysing the Nifty 50 index futures via technical analysis. At InvestingLive, a potential bullish movement in NIFTY is anticipated if certain technical conditions prevail. The prediction is part of InvestingLive’s approach, with forexlive.com set to redirect to this new brand by the end of summer.
The hourly NIFTY chart currently shows a clearly defined blue channel, with multiple touchpoints on both the upper and lower bands. Generally, a fourth touchpoint in such a pattern leads to a breakout. A valid price channel needs at least two touchpoints on each side. Trends often develop subtly before becoming evident, as demonstrated by a secondary trend within the existing channel.
Potential Bull Flag Pattern
Currently, there is a potential bull flag pattern forming in NIFTY, suggested by the regression channel. For a bullish scenario, NIFTY needs to break upwards from the bull flag pattern. A retest near the double-support level of 25,400 to 25,350 would support a bullish outlook. A successful retest could propel NIFTY towards 25,700, marking a 1.3% or 328-point gain, with 26,000 as a possible target.
From the analysis thus far, we’re looking at a chart structure that often acts as a prelude to momentum. The presence of a regression channel within a broader price channel offers hints of consolidation rather than immediate reversal. When these elements coincide—especially after multiple bounces—one ought to expect that pressure is building, not dissipating.
The reference to a fourth touchpoint is not arbitrary. In technical charting, repeated interaction with a trend boundary indicates that traders recognise and trust its reliability. When a market approaches a trend line a fourth time, especially during a tighter flag formation, more often than not it suggests increasing conviction on one side of the market. Right now, the suggestion is that buyers may be in the process of tightening their grip.
This sort of behaviour is typically backed by measured pullbacks. We notice the mention of a possible retest around the 25,350 level, which aligns with previous areas of demand that proved resilient. It’s rarely about a simple line; what’s actually happening is that buyers historically stepped in at this region, and they’re likely watching it again. Should that level be respected on the downside, it increases the probability that we proceed to test higher territory—25,700 being a near-term zone of interest, and 26,000 sitting just within reach beyond that.
Short Dated Positions
For those who manage short-dated positions, such as leveraged exposure or weekly expiries, it’s worth acknowledging the typical reaction after flag structures break. Once a clean break occurs and is confirmed with volume or a swift move away from the prior support band, the follow-through tends to be sharper over the next two to three sessions. That’s when price often begins to pick up speed, and hedging may become a consideration for those with open books.
Sharma’s earlier framing of the lower support zone offers context; it wasn’t picked as an estimate, but likely based on overlapping demand seen in past trading sessions. When multiple indicators align towards the same area—trend backtests, previous resistance turned support, and possibly moving averages—it raises the importance of the level itself. Should the price dip into that zone and instantly rebound, momentum funds often view that as a fresh entry cue.
Kumar’s technical glance implies that despite tight ranges, the index is coiling rather than stalling. That coiling action, visually present through a narrowing regression channel, implies energy is being stored rather than dissipated. In prior years, similar structures within broader rising trends have marked points from which futures rose to test more stretched valuations.
We must also keep an eye on volume during each move. If price breaks upwards from the flag without a corresponding increase in traded contracts or activity, it might just be a false draw towards stop orders above. Conversely, confirmation often arrives through expanding volume, ideally paired with increasing open interest, which usually signals conviction from institutional market-makers rather than light volume speculation.
What’s more, recent historical volatility is lower than the three-month average, which hints that a move in either direction—should it arrive—might be sharper than usual. That makes weekly strike selection particularly sensitive. We’re approaching a period where tight-range straddle selling begins to lose attractiveness, and directional bias, timed correctly, could reward more than gamma-neutral setups.
Aggarwal’s commentary indirectly supports this—those price structures don’t develop overnight, but once they resolve, they tend to support follow-through. Especially during quiet global macro stretches, where liquidity allows technical signals to drive more of the intraday action.
So from where we stand: if the retest behaves as expected, and if volume comes alive during that moment of lift-off, follow-through towards the resistance tier mentioned earlier is not only viable but likely. Positions established before that confirmation come with higher risk and emotion, but for those positioned post-confirmation, there’s a chance for clear, methodical trade openings with defined risk.
