Insights 
VT 
The AIB Manufacturing PMI for Ireland has slipped to 50.9 in October from 51.8 previously. This suggests a slight contraction in the sector, as figures above 50 typically denote expansion.
Global market trends are witnessing developments involving the US dollar and key currency pairs. The EUR/USD pair is staying below 1.1550, influenced by reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Meanwhile, GBP/USD has decreased to its lowest since mid-April, and gold is drawing renewed attention with a rebound approaching $4,000.
Future Market Dynamics
Future market dynamics remain uncertain, with potential shifts influenced by global economic data and monetary policy announcements from central banks.
In the realm of digital currencies, Bitcoin recently celebrated the 17th anniversary of its whitepaper, highlighting its evolution from a niche concept to a prominent asset class.
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Potential Broader Weakness
Given the slowdown in Ireland’s manufacturing PMI, we see this as an early warning for potential broader weakness in the Eurozone. This aligns with recent data from Germany, where the latest IFO Business Climate index also dipped to 90.1, suggesting a loss of economic momentum across the bloc. This environment reinforces a bearish outlook for the Euro, making it prudent to consider buying put options on the EUR/USD pair, especially with it struggling below the 1.1550 resistance level.
The strength in the US dollar appears directly linked to the market adjusting its expectations for Federal Reserve policy. With US core CPI figures remaining stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target and hovering around 3.5% for the last quarter, bets on an imminent rate cut are fading fast. This reinforces strategies that are long the dollar, such as selling EUR/USD and GBP/USD futures contracts.
Sterling’s drop to its lowest point since April 2025 reflects ongoing concerns about the UK’s lagging economic growth. Looking back, the UK’s recovery has consistently underperformed against the US since the inflationary pressures began in earnest during 2023. We see this as a fundamental weakness that will likely continue, favouring bearish positions on the pound against the dollar.
Gold’s impressive test of the $4,000 mark is a strong signal of renewed fear in the market. This rally builds on momentum that started with the geopolitical tensions that escalated through 2024, pushing gold far beyond its previous record highs. For traders, buying call options on gold futures offers a direct hedge against this rising risk-off sentiment and potential stock market volatility.
