Insights 
VT 
Innovation And Growth
China aims for strong growth during 2026-30, hoping to leverage tech advancements for productivity gains. More funds might be allocated to improve the population’s wellbeing to unlock consumption potential, with a proactive stance on broadening the international use of RMB.
The forthcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to emphasise growth. Discussions suggest a target growth average of 4.7-4.8% for 2026-30 to double 2020 GDP by 2035, though specifics remain undisclosed. The anticipated growth exceeds market consensus, with policies likely to be accommodating to support this ambition.
Innovation is projected to be a priority to enhance total factor productivity amidst an aging population and Western tech constraints. Private sector R&D spending will be incentivised, capitalising on China’s STEM talent. Renewables investment may continue to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030, with measures expected to boost domestic demand, redistributing income towards low-income groups.
Authorities may promote the Renminbi’s international trade and investment use over the next five years, enhancing RMB asset investibility. Alternative cross-border payment channels may be explored, supported by Hong Kong as a pivotal offshore financial hub.
Economic Indicators And Market Strategies
Given the upcoming 4th Plenum from October 20-23, we see a clear signal that China is preparing to target above-consensus growth for its next five-year plan. With recent Q3 2025 GDP data showing resilience at 4.9%, a formal pro-growth announcement could fuel a rally in the coming weeks. Traders should consider buying November call options on the FTSE China A50 index to position for this potential upside.
The plan’s emphasis on tech innovation and green energy creates specific opportunities in those sectors. We’ve seen China’s R&D spending as a percentage of GDP climb steadily, hitting a record 2.65% in the last reported data for 2024, and this trend is set to accelerate. Buying call options on clean energy ETFs like the KraneShares MSCI China Clean Technology Index ETF (KGRN) or on major Chinese tech names could capture the momentum from policies designed to boost these industries.
An ambitious growth target of around 4.7% would require significant industrial activity and investment, directly impacting global commodities. Copper prices have been sensitive to Chinese demand signals all year, and we anticipate that a strong FYP announcement could trigger a breakout. We believe going long on December copper futures or buying call spreads on copper ETFs presents a favorable risk-reward for a demand-driven price increase.
Finally, the push to internationalize the Renminbi suggests a policy preference for a stable to stronger currency to attract foreign investment. The RMB’s share of global SWIFT payments just hit a fresh high of 4.81% in August 2025, and this policy focus will likely support that trend. We see value in positioning for a lower USD/CNH exchange rate by selling out-of-the-money call options, betting that the pair will remain capped by official policy.
