Defensive Shifts in Speculative Positioning
Speculative positioning turned more defensive in the week to 29 September, with crude oil longs cut and CAD shorts deepening, while AUD and JPY positioning also eased; coffee buying was an exception, and gold exposure stayed elevated even as prices fell. In WTI, speculators’ net long fell to about 109.5K contracts as the price dropped by more than 5% towards $89.00 a barrel; exposure sat near the 11th percentile and net positioning near the 10th percentile, leaving the market looking for further price follow-through or a reversal to challenge the move.
Highlights Across Key Assets
In CAD, non-commercials lifted net longs to roughly 78.7K contracts as spot climbed towards 1.4200, with net positioning around the 32nd percentile and exposure near the 51st percentile. JPY was the clearest mismatch, with price and speculative flow moving in different directions, so the signal remained inconclusive. Elsewhere, price and positioning aligned across CAD, EUR, WTI, GBP and gold, though the next week’s action was framed as the test. Gold (XAU) was the most crowded exposure at the 91st percentile, while GBP sat near the 1st net percentile; JPY had the strongest net-positioning reading at the 84th percentile.
