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VT 
The EUR/HUF currency pair is experiencing a continuous decline, moving towards the 383/382 support zone. Société Générale analysts have observed this as the pair struggles to surpass the moving average after losing the 50-day moving average in May.
The movement towards 383/382 could provide interim support, potentially prompting a rebound. However, overcoming the 50-day moving average near 390 is essential for a prolonged upward movement to be confirmed.
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We are watching the EUR/HUF pair continue its steady decline, approaching a critical support zone between 383 and 382. This downward trend has been in place since the pair fell below its 50-day moving average back in May 2025. The pair has consistently failed to reclaim that level on subsequent attempts.
The fundamental picture supports a stronger forint, which aligns with the technical downtrend we are seeing. Recent data from October 2025 showed Hungarian inflation cooling to 4.1%, prompting the Hungarian National Bank to signal it is nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle. This contrasts with the European Central Bank, which is facing a sluggish Eurozone economy.
Monetary Policy Divergence
In fact, the latest flash manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone registered a disappointing 48.2, indicating continued contraction and keeping pressure on the ECB to remain dovish. This monetary policy divergence between a hawkish-leaning MNB and a dovish ECB is a primary driver for a lower EUR/HUF. This situation is reminiscent of the dynamic we saw in late 2023 when a wide interest rate differential heavily favored the forint.
For the coming weeks, we should prepare for a test of the 383/382 support. A definitive break below this level could open the door for a sharper fall, making put options with a strike price around 380 an interesting strategy to consider. This approach would allow us to profit from continued downside momentum while capping our potential loss if support unexpectedly holds.
However, if the 383/382 zone does provide support and a bounce occurs, we should remain cautious. A true reversal would require a move back above the significant resistance at the 50-day moving average, currently near 390. We would not consider long positions, such as buying call options, unless the pair can decisively overcome that 390 barrier.
