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Resistance Levels and Market Insights
The Brazilian Real faces mild pressure, with USD/BRL holding above 5.27. Technical indicators suggest a potential rise, with support at 5.37 remaining in place. Société Générale’s FX analysts observe a constructive turn in USD/BRL above this support level.
After forming an interim low near 5.27, USD/BRL saw a short-term bounce. It has surpassed a multi-month descending trend line, with the daily MACD indicating diminishing downward momentum. If a short-term pullback occurs, the region around 5.37 could offer support, potentially continuing the rebound.
Upcoming resistance levels include the 200-DMA near 5.63 and May highs of 5.73/5.76. The FXStreet Insights Team, composed of journalists, curates market observations from experts. The article includes contributions from both commercial notes and insights from various analysts.
Building Momentum for the US Dollar
We are seeing positive momentum build for the US dollar against the Brazilian real, with the pair holding above the 5.37 support level. Technical signals like the breaking of a multi-month downtrend suggest that the path of least resistance is upwards. This indicates that the rebound from last month’s low near 5.27 has further to run.
This technical view is supported by recent economic data. The stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report on October 3rd, 2025, which showed the addition of 265,000 jobs against an expectation of 190,000, continues to underpin dollar strength. In contrast, Brazil’s central bank has signaled a potential end to its rate-hiking cycle after September 2025 inflation came in at 3.9%, making the real less attractive to carry traders.
For those anticipating a continued rise in USD/BRL, buying call options is a straightforward strategy. We could look at purchasing calls with strike prices near the next major resistance levels, such as 5.60 or 5.70, with expirations in December 2025 or January 2026. This would allow time for the upward trend to develop as projected.
Traders with a more moderate view might consider bull call spreads to lower the upfront cost. Another approach is to sell out-of-the-money put options below the critical 5.37 support level. This strategy collects premium on the bet that the pair will not break below this newly established floor in the coming weeks.
We have seen this kind of price action before, with the pair reaching highs around 5.73/5.76 back in May of this year. Looking at historical volatility, we also recall the sharp moves above 5.80 during the 2020-2021 period. Those past events show that a sustained rally toward these higher levels is entirely plausible if the current momentum holds.
