Insights 
VT 
EUR/USD Is Challenging A Key Trend Line
The pair is challenging the descending trend line established since 2023. There is a possibility of retesting the 50-DMA near 1.1070, and failure to hold this level could lead to a decline towards the March high of 1.1025/1.0950.
The EUR/USD currency pair, having failed to sustain its advance past a stubborn resistance near 1.1570, has since drifted lower. With each passing session, the slope becomes clearer—the highs are lower, the lows are following suit, and any attempt to lift the pair is met with a noticeable lack of conviction. The speed with which buyers step in has slowed, and we’re now watching a developing sequence that increasingly favours the downside.
Momentum indicators, particularly the MACD, have tipped their hand. With its signal line now consistently under the trigger, the setup speaks to fading participation from bullish interests. At the same time, price action has sunk below the 50-day moving average, which is no longer acting as a floor but rather as a short-term ceiling. That level, sitting around the 1.1070 mark, could now act as an area of renewed selling interest on any approach.
The Technical Picture Remains Bearish
The technical trend line stretching back to 2023 is being tested once more. The fact that it is being approached from above, and with slowing velocity, is telling. Multiple failed attempts to reclaim highs have left the path open for a deeper flush. If the price can’t reclaim or hold above 1.1070 in the short term, attention would naturally shift to the lows seen in March, at around 1.1025 and then further down towards 1.0950.
What we’re seeing is the behaviour of a market that’s losing its sense of urgency on the upside; rallies are being sold rather quickly, and dips are extending just a little further than expected each time. For those monitoring interest rate differentials or external catalysts like US inflation data, it’s worth noting how these macro drivers seem to be reinforcing the technical picture rather than contradicting it. The moves are aligned.
From our perspective, watching whether the pair can hold the 1.1025—1.0950 zone becomes the priority. A clean break there might not only accelerate the downward pace but also shift the broader structure to something more than just a temporary retracement from recent highs. Often in such technical conditions, options markets begin to price wider tails, and we’ve already begun noticing that in skew patterns shifting lower.
As a weekly guidepost, we ought to stay nimble around any return to the 1.1070 region. If price stalls again despite broader risk positivity or supportive ECB rhetoric, it would appear sellers remain in control. What matters less now is isolated bullish reads; what carries more weight is how consistently upside gets sold and downside keeps attracting follow-through.
