Insights 
VT 
Societe Generale predicts the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points this week. This view contrasts with current market pricing, which generally expects a 25 basis point reduction.
Standard Chartered is the only other brokerage foreseeing a 50 basis point cut. Currently, traders assign just a 4% probability to a 50 basis point decrease.
Moderately Restrictive Approach
Societe Generale believes the Fed’s moderately restrictive approach is outdated. They state that a strong adjustment is necessary even as inflation remains a concern, considering a shift towards employment issues in the Fed’s dual mandate.
With the market almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut this week, we see a clear opportunity in the contrarian call for a more aggressive 50 basis point move. Some are arguing that the Fed’s restrictive stance has gone too far and a forceful recalibration is needed. This creates a valuable discrepancy between consensus and a potential market-moving surprise.
The argument for a larger cut is supported by the recent shift in economic risks toward employment. The August 2025 jobs report showed a notable cooling, with non-farm payrolls adding just 160,000 jobs, missing expectations, and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2%. This gives the Fed cover to act more decisively, even though core inflation remains sticky, last reported for August at a 3.3% annual rate.
Classic Options Play
For traders, this low-probability scenario presents a classic options play. With fed funds futures implying only a 4% chance of a 50 basis point cut, volatility is cheap. We should be looking at buying out-of-the-money call options on Treasury futures or put options on the U.S. dollar, which would offer an asymmetric payout if the Fed delivers a surprise.
We have seen the Fed make unexpectedly forceful moves before when it believes it has made a policy error. Looking back to late 2018, the market forced the Fed to pivot from hiking to cutting rates much faster than anyone anticipated. That historical precedent suggests that when the central bank decides it has overshot, its reaction can be much more dramatic than current pricing suggests.
