Insights 
VT 
US headline inflation is anticipated to rise by 3.1% year-on-year in September. In contrast, Singapore’s industrial production skyrocketed by 16.1% in the same month, surpassing the forecast of 0.5%.
In currency markets, NZD/USD stabilises at approximately 0.5750 with traders cautious ahead of US CPI data. The AUD/JPY trades positively above 99.50, while the Australian dollar remains subdued. Gold prices drop ahead of trade discussions and US inflation data release. The EUR/GBP hovers around 0.8700 amid UK retail sales updates, while crude oil prices open bearish in Europe.
Market Dynamics and Sentiments
The EUR/USD is pressured near 1.1600 amidst a US Dollar boost. The GBP/USD rises above 1.3300 following a 0.5% increase in UK retail sales for September. Gold remains near $4,100 as geopolitical issues influence oil prices. Chainlink consolidates above $17 after a 2% recovery, yet faces bearish sentiment from limited retail interest.
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With US inflation for September expected to come in at 3.1%, we are preparing for the US dollar to remain strong. This number is still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, meaning we don’t expect any interest rate cuts soon, a fact supported by futures markets which are pricing in no cuts until at least mid-2026. Derivative traders should be cautious about being short the dollar, as a higher-than-expected inflation number could trigger another sharp rally.
The market is showing tension ahead of this data, which often means volatility is undervalued. We are seeing this caution in the New Zealand dollar, which is hovering nervously around 0.5750 against the US dollar. Using options strategies like straddles on major currency pairs could be a way to profit from a large price swing, regardless of the direction, once the inflation numbers are released.
Gold and Currency Trends
Gold’s price, hanging near $4,100, tells a story of the major market uncertainty we have seen since the geopolitical events of early 2025. This recent dip appears to be temporary profit-taking before the inflation data, as higher interest rates typically make non-yielding gold less attractive. However, should the inflation data come in surprisingly low, we could see a powerful rebound in gold prices as the dollar weakens.
The British pound is showing unusual strength, rising above 1.3300 against the dollar thanks to better-than-expected retail sales. This contrasts with the euro, which remains weak near 1.1600, creating a clear divergence between the UK and Eurozone economies. This trend, which we’ve observed for most of 2025, could make shorting the EUR/GBP pair an attractive position.
While US data is the focus, we cannot ignore Singapore’s massive 16.1% surge in industrial production. This signals that demand in Asia, particularly for electronics and high-tech goods, remains incredibly robust and is a counterpoint to the bearishness in oil prices. This suggests that while the US dollar may be strong globally, currencies tied to Asian growth, like the Singapore dollar, may perform well against commodity-exporting currencies.
