Insights 
VT 
Since mid-April 2024, light crude oil futures have adhered to a red resistance line, with touchpoints in April 2024, January 2025, and mid-June 2025. The recent test exceeded this resistance, potentially affecting stop losses for early short sellers and trapping breakout buyers.
From early April to early June 2025, prices ranged between $52 and $65. A fixed range volume profile during this time shows the value area where institutional and algorithmic trades occur. The Value Area Low (VAL), around $55, offered a buying opportunity on May 30.
Volume Profile Strategy
Traders experienced in volume profile dynamics note that professional buyers enter at VAL. They typically make partial exits near the Point of Control (POC) or Value Area High, approximately $63.35, and may target higher zones if momentum continues.
Now, with crude oil displaying only a mild rejection from the June 12 high and buyers re-entering, a price retest of resistance is possible. A breakthrough could shift towards $80, a notable round number. This is not a prediction but rather an insight, emphasising the use of the Volume Profile as part of the tradeCompass methodology.
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In the weeks that followed the May 30 bounce off the $55 Value Area Low, price action has behaved in an orderly fashion. Since that low, each pullback has become increasingly shallow, while upward moves have started to show more direction. We observed cleaner initiative drives from buyers—sharp, low-volatility candles often aligning with increased trading volume right after the release of inventory data or macrofuel releases.
This speaks to a shift in intent. The market seems to be rejecting lower prices with more energy than it punishes the longs. That tells us there is structure attempting to form beneath the price, rather than above it. In contexts like this, we often look to see if aggression is rewarded on either side. That means watching how intraday extensions behave toward the extremes of the value zone. If, for example, price breaks up through $63.35 while volume starts building above it, and the tape confirms the absorption of weaker hands, then what looked like just another shelf might extend towards untouched liquidity resting above recent highs.
Market Behavior and Strategy
Looking at January’s rejection just above the resistance trendline, we can spot aggressive volume sellers stepping in just after the test. That didn’t happen on June 12. Instead, we saw a temporary stall, lower wicks being defended, and slow re-rotation back into the value pocket. All of this leans into the idea that profit-takers were in play—rather than fresh institutional shorts.
We never make trades based solely on one tool. But when volume begins to taper off during down moves while remaining steady or climbing during drives upward, one doesn’t need a great deal of conviction to take a partial position. Especially when those upward drives begin within or just above high-volume nodes.
The $80 figure might sound far off today, but we can’t ignore how markets behave around round numbers. Large psychological levels often act like magnets, drawing price toward them if prior resistance fails to generate enough response. What’s more telling, though, is whether the area around $63.35 becomes a base or a ceiling. Whether price accepts above or below that level will drive much of the short-term planning.
From our side, small- to medium-sized trades that align with both structure and behaviour have worked well, provided stops are kept sensible. If price approaches those earlier highs with low volatility and shallow retracements, there could be value in staying with a position longer.
Awareness of how volume clusters form around key resistance bands has helped us manage risk. Particularly, when we tag into value areas with known historical control points, it tells us where participants previously behaved with intent. If similar behaviour occurs again, we have a framework for gauging commitment.
In our strategy sessions lately, we’ve discussed holding partial exposure long, watching for subtle shifts around the prior resistance close to $66. If upside progress slows, or if volume spikes occur without a follow-through in price, it might be time to unwind. Conversely, steady expansion beyond that area would signal us to widen our targets slightly and trail stops using volume ledges as rail guards.
We remain attentive to the balance between initiative and responsive activity. Not just in terms of size, but in how price reacts when challenged. Reaction time matters. When thin moves are met with heavy absorption, it only takes one flush candle to invalidate the setup. But when pullbacks are met with silent crawlbacks into acceptance, that’s often a preparatory sign for continued rotational movement.
For now, we watch how the next interaction with this red trendline plays out—not for confirmation, but for reaction. The behaviour around that touch will tell us more than any forecast.
