Silver rose by over 7% and reached $75.00 by the end of March. The move came as US Treasury yields fell and the US Dollar weakened after oil prices dropped.
Price action broke above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $74.11 and moved through $75.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed bearish but moved closer to neutral as prices made a higher high.
Further upside levels are the 20-day SMA at $77.32 and then $80.00. If those levels break, the next target is the 50-day SMA at $84.03.
If silver falls back below the 100-day SMA, support is seen at $74.00 and then $70.00. Below that, the next level is the March 26 daily low at $66.73.
We are seeing a strong move in silver, which has now cleared the $75 level, echoing the breakout pattern we witnessed back in March of 2025. This surge past the 100-day moving average is a significant bullish signal, fueled by a weaker U.S. Dollar and falling bond yields. Current data shows the 10-year Treasury yield has dipped below 3.5%, creating a favorable environment for non-yielding assets like silver.
Given this upside momentum, we believe positioning for further gains through call options is a prudent strategy for the coming weeks. Traders could consider targeting strikes near the $77.50 and $80.00 resistance levels mentioned in last year’s analysis. The ongoing structural deficit in the physical market, with the Silver Institute reporting that industrial demand from solar and 5G technology has outstripped mine supply for the fourth consecutive year, supports this bullish outlook.
However, we must also remember the cautionary note from 2025 regarding the Relative Strength Index, which can signal overbought conditions. A failure for silver to hold above the 100-day SMA, now a key support level around $74, would be a major warning sign. For those looking to hedge long positions or speculate on a reversal, purchasing put options with strikes below $74 or near the $70 mark offers a defined-risk strategy.
We recall that the breakout in March 2025 led to a sharp increase in volatility, and we expect a similar environment now. This suggests that option premiums may become elevated, which could make strategies like credit spreads more attractive than simply buying options outright. Historically, when silver breaks key technical levels like this, its implied volatility often jumps significantly, presenting opportunities for traders prepared for wider price swings.
