The Euro is well-supported on declines, trading a cent above the previous session’s low. Final German GDP for Q1 was revised upwards, with a 0.4% increase, surpassing initial estimates and market expectations. This data has helped the Euro rise from the low 1.13 range.

Recent gains suggest a bullish breakout from the previous downward consolidation pattern. EUR’s trend momentum indicates a potential upward movement in spot trading, albeit short-term gains might face resistance between 1.1380/1.1420. A possible retest of the 1.16 area or higher, towards the 1.18/1.20 range, is anticipated.

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The revision to German GDP, pushing growth to 0.4% in the first quarter, delivered a clear confirmation of strength in the Eurozone’s largest economy. That’s not just a fresh data point—it recalibrates assumptions on broader European fundamentals. With that, we’ve seen the Euro well-bid on dips, carving out higher lows despite recent choppy trading. It’s showing resilience, clinging comfortably above short-term support just under 1.1340.

Sustained buying interest suggests investor confidence is rebounding. The consolidation that had previously capped upside momentum appears to be unraveling. From our standpoint, price action has begun to demonstrate characteristics of a shift in market structure. Near-term resistance established between 1.1380 and 1.1420 may act as a test zone: a move above there could trigger wider participation and strategies built around momentum re-entry.

We’re watching price probes toward the 1.16 handle with increased attention. Beyond that, the technical appetite exists for a run towards the 1.18 to 1.20 corridor. That being said, traders must keep in mind that such moves are rarely linear. Intra-day volatility could spike, particularly around macro data or geopolitical statements, and that might destabilise otherwise clean trend opportunities.

Some discretionary players have already begun to lighten short positions, and forward volatility structures are showing slight steepening across the curve. For those of us positioning through derivatives, attention should shift to gamma profiles in the 1W and 2W tenors, especially as implied vols have softened. This positioning could allow us to capture directional moves more cleanly, with reasonably defined risk.

Scholz’s fiscal policy stance has done little to shake investor interpretation of near-term growth expectations. German export strength and industrial orders have begun to stabilise, and that further anchors Euro sensitivity to local data beats. Price reaction will likely pivot near option barriers layered just above 1.14—should these level breaks arrive on volume, follow-through towards 1.16 will need confirmation in futures open interest.

From our desks, it’s also apparent that stop-loss orders are clustered tightly around last week’s highs. If those get triggered during a low-liquidity window, spot rates could jump quickly. Risk-adjusted strategies should therefore incorporate short-term hedges, while spreads across EUR crosses like EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP may start to widen should capital flows pick up.

No model is perfect, of course. But when price behaves differently in response to otherwise typical news, we adjust. And as always, underpinning everything: capital preservation must remain front-of-mind. Not all moves are worth chasing.