Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar (USD) is experiencing mixed trading against major currencies. The risk sentiment remains subdued as European stocks initially rose but lost gains due to the US tech sell-off impact.
US equity futures have turned negative, while bonds show a modest uptick and gold is slightly up. Major currency gains or losses are minor, indicating a waiting pattern in the FX market as traders look for equity market or fundamental changes.
Us Government Shutdown And Market Impact
The US government shutdown, now in its 35th day, might influence private sector data this morning. Upcoming reports on October Services and Composite PMIs, as well as preliminary October Services ISM, may offer insight into the economy’s end-of-year outlook. The Supreme Court will assess tariff challenges, but a decision isn’t expected until the New Year.
Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) gains are stalling just above 100, just below the 200-day moving average of 100.35, a key technical resistance. Pushing past the low 100s suggests the USD might continue rising in the coming weeks, while a reversal would retain the consolidation range since mid-year. This evening sees Japan’s wage data and Australia’s trade data releases.
We’re seeing the US Dollar trade in a tight range as a soft undertone grips the market. Yesterday’s drop in tech stocks is making investors cautious, especially with uncertainty over future Fed policy. This has led to a holding pattern as traders look for the next major catalyst.
The Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of stalling just above the 100 mark. This level is a significant technical barrier, aligning with the highs we saw back in August 2025 following that month’s strong jobs report. How the dollar behaves here will be crucial for the next few weeks.
Recent Economic Indicators And Their Implications
This hesitation comes as recent data gives a mixed picture of the US economy. The October 2025 jobs report showed a slowdown, with only 140,000 new jobs added, while the latest CPI reading came in at 2.9%, moving closer to the Fed’s target but not yet there. This makes the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates much harder to predict.
For derivative traders, this creates a clear decision point. A decisive push through the low 100s could signal the dollar’s rebound is set to continue, making long dollar call options attractive. On the other hand, a failure and reversal from this resistance area would suggest the DXY will remain in the broad consolidation range it has held since mid-2025, favoring range-bound strategies or put options.
We’ve seen this sort of consolidation before, particularly during the second half of 2023 when markets were trying to guess the peak of the Fed’s hiking cycle. The choppy price action then proved difficult for directional bets. It serves as a reminder that until a clear break occurs, selling volatility through strategies like short strangles on currency pairs like EUR/USD could be a viable approach.
