Insights 
VT 
The British Pound is stabilising against the US Dollar as it enters Friday’s North American session with no change. Despite recent political unrest, the outlook for the Pound remains positive with confidence in the UK’s fiscal situation.
Upcoming data releases next week, such as trade and industrial production, will play a role in the upcoming Bank of England policy decision on 7 August. Markets are currently predicting 22 basis points of easing in August and a total of 54 basis points cuts by the end of the year.
GBP Trading Range
The trend for the GBP remains positive, yet momentum has decreased, with the RSI moving towards the neutral zone around 50. The 50-day moving average stands at 1.3474, serving as a key medium-term support level, with a trading range between 1.3600 support and 1.3780 resistance.
The EUR/USD is consolidating gains below 1.1800 amid light trading. GBP/USD maintains gains above 1.3650 as the US Dollar faces challenges. The gold price is set for gains for the first time in three weeks, albeit below recent highs. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are nearing all-time highs, with Ethereum and Ripple breaking key resistances.
What this tells us is that despite certain tensions on the political front, the Pound is holding reasonably well against the Dollar. The market hasn’t reacted in the way some may have expected—it’s steady, not stalled. This suggests there’s a decent level of trust in Britain’s financial standing. The fiscal side of things is doing enough to reassure those asking whether now is the time to steer away from Sterling.
Next week’s economic releases will provide more clarity, especially trade and production data. These are likely to shape expectations ahead of the Bank of England’s decision scheduled for early August. Current pricing implies a small reduction in rates, but not all at once—investors seem to be leaning towards a slow-paced approach, with cuts spread over the coming months. That puts monetary policy in a more predictable zone for the second half of the year.
Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment
With the RSI hovering near 50, things could go either way short-term. For now, the technical indicators hint at a loss of upward speed, not a complete reverse. We’re looking closely at the 1.3474 mark, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. This has held firm and should continue to act as a point of stability unless broader risk sentiment shifts sharply. On the upper side, 1.3780 has proven sticky, capping moves higher. Unless there’s a surprise in upcoming data, price action might continue to oscillate between these two levels.
Meanwhile, the Euro-Dollar’s slower movement under 1.1800 tells us liquidity remains muted, typical for this time of year. The Dollar is slipping, partly due to softening economic indicators Stateside and partly from expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease towards preserving growth more actively.
Gold, for its part, has finally strung together some gains. It hasn’t broken to new heights, but it’s no longer pulling back the way it was. We note that haven demand hasn’t reignited strongly, but the door is open again for upward moves if real yields continue to drop.
In the digital asset space, we’ve been watching Ethereum and Ripple push past technical ceilings, suggesting improved conviction among participants. These breakouts point to continued interest, although with assets sitting close to long-term highs, risk is elevated if there’s a turn in broader sentiment or regulation headlines.
At this stage, we’re maintaining a responsive rather than anticipatory stance. Reaction will be key—especially around the British macro numbers next week. Trades should consider where implied volatility is diverging from historical patterns. While trend-following has worked recently, any deviance in upcoming reports could reward being flexible over being early. Timing entries closer to data releases, with a tighter risk threshold, might prove more efficient than chasing recent gains.
