Rivian Automotive (RIVN), known for its electric trucks and SUVs, has rebounded from its December low. The stock now faces three resistance levels, crucial hurdles for its upward movement. Currently trading at $21.38, it has risen about 65% from its mid-December base of approximately $12-13.
The first resistance level is at $22.83, a crucial point just $1.45 higher than the current price. If RIVN surpasses this, the next target is $24.86, which is about 17% above its current rate. Achieving this could indicate sustained momentum rather than a temporary rise.
The third resistance is set at $28.05, promising a 32% gain if reached. This would suggest a notable shift from the stock’s previous consolidation in 2024. Traders are eyeing support at $22.83 to set realistic targets for the remaining resistance levels.
A failure to surpass these points may indicate stock fatigue, with a potential retreat to mid-teens prices. Volume trends will be essential indicators; diminished volume during rallies could signify declining interest. Rivian’s progress through these levels will be pivotal, with each breakout likely attracting more interest or triggering profit-taking.
As we look at Rivian trading at $21.38 today on Christmas Eve, the setup for the next few weeks is clear. The first major test is the $22.83 resistance level, a hurdle that comes during a typically low-volume holiday period. This thin trading could lead to sharp, exaggerated moves in either direction.
For those who are bullish, the play is to watch for a break and hold above $22.83. The recent news that we beat our Q4 2025 production guidance of 54,000 vehicles provides a decent tailwind for this move. We might consider buying the January 2026 call options, specifically the $23 or $24 strikes, to capture a potential quick run-up to the next resistance at $24.86.
If the stock fails to break that first hurdle, we should be ready for a bearish response. A rejection at $22.83, especially on declining volume, would signal exhaustion similar to what we saw in the failed rallies during the summer of 2024. In that scenario, buying puts with a $20 strike for late January could be a good way to hedge or speculate on a pullback toward the $19 support level.
We need to pay close attention to implied volatility, which has been creeping up ahead of this potential breakout. The latest CPI data from last week showed inflation continues to cool, which generally helps growth stocks, but RIVN’s IV suggests the market is pricing in a significant move. This means options are more expensive, so strategies like selling put spreads below $20 might be better for those who are cautiously optimistic.
The ultimate target here is that $28.05 level, which would confirm a true trend reversal after the long consolidation we saw throughout 2024. A break above the second resistance at $24.86 would be our signal to consider longer-dated calls, perhaps for March or April 2026. This would give the trade enough time to play out and capture a much larger move if this recovery has real legs.
