Insights 
VT 
Electronic Card Retail Sales
Electronic card retail sales in New Zealand rose by 0.2% in October, up from a decline of 0.5% in the previous month. This change reflects a shift in consumer spending behaviour.
The Japanese Yen remains weak amid uncertainties surrounding the Bank of Japan’s policy. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair has adjusted to near 0.5650.
The US government is moving towards a resolution to the shutdown, with the House voting on the matter. Concurrently, the Australian dollar has strengthened due to positive labour market data.
In the metals market, gold is trading close to three-week highs near the $4,200 mark. This rise accompanies developments around the US government shutdown and expectations of Federal Reserve actions.
Cryptocurrency Sui is trading above $2.00 despite a previous decline. It experienced a 3.5% increase amidst recent market dynamics.
Top Currency Trading Brokers
Future brokerage recommendations note several top brokers for currency trading anticipated for 2025. Different criteria such as low spreads, leverage, and regulatory factors are considered in these selections.
The information shared is not a recommendation and carries associated risks. It is advised that individuals conduct thorough research before engaging in investment activities.
The recent 0.2% uptick in New Zealand’s electronic card sales for October is a modest positive sign for the kiwi dollar. After a 0.5% decline the previous month, this small recovery suggests some resilience in consumer spending. We see this as a minor supporting factor, but not enough to change our view that the NZD/USD will be dominated by US events.
With the US government shutdown now ending, our focus shifts entirely to the Federal Reserve’s next move. The political uncertainty that kept the Fed on the sidelines is gone, and traders are now looking at the hard data again. Given that the last CPI report in October showed core inflation still hovering around 3.5%, the pressure is back on the Fed to act against inflation.
This creates an environment where we can expect increased volatility in US markets over the coming weeks. Looking back at the resolution of the 2018-2019 government shutdown, we saw a similar pattern where market choppiness increased as attention snapped back to monetary policy. Derivative traders should anticipate sharp moves around upcoming Fed speeches and data releases.
Gold’s recent strength, pushing it toward three-week highs near $4,200, is less about dollar weakness and more about hedging against a potential policy error. The market seems to be using options to protect against a scenario where the Fed tightens too aggressively into an economy that was just paused by a shutdown. We are seeing a notable increase in open interest for call options expiring in the first quarter of 2026.
In the currency space, the renewed focus on the Fed makes the US dollar the primary driver. This suggests that strategies that bet on volatility, such as straddles on EUR/USD around the 1.1600 level, could be useful. The pound’s relative strength beyond 1.3100 seems supported by its own fundamentals, particularly as recent UK jobs data showed wage growth remaining stubbornly high at over 5%.
