Insights 
VT 
Exchange Rate Dynamics
Germany’s retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 1.4% in September. This figure compares with a previous rise of 1.8%.
Across the European trading landscape, the EUR/USD traded with caution, hovering above 1.1650. This comes as the US Dollar maintained strength due to easing Federal Reserve dovish bets and improved US-China trade relations.
The GBP/USD remained near recent highs around 1.3150, with the stable US Dollar being supported by reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut. Gold suffered intraday losses but saw a slight recovery, influenced by the US Dollar’s firmness.
Meme coins such as Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe faced selling pressure, with a risk of breaking monthly support levels amid the broader cryptocurrency market downturn.
In the broader financial market, artificial intelligence continues to drive global market direction. Despite geopolitical developments and central bank actions, AI remains a major focus for market participants.
Looking Back at Market Trends
Looking back at these old market dispatches, it is remarkable how much the environment has shifted by our current date of October 31, 2025. The discussion then of a EUR/USD pair above 1.1600 seems like a distant memory, as we now see it struggling to hold the 1.0500 level. This shows the long-term economic divergence that has played out between a resilient US and a struggling Eurozone.
The old debate about the Federal Reserve possibly cutting rates was a sign of a completely different era. We have since lived through the great inflation cycle of 2022-2024, which saw the Fed Funds Rate peak at 5.5% before being cautiously lowered to the 3.5% where it sits today. This prolonged period of higher rates continues to provide a powerful tailwind for the US dollar against other major currencies.
That old German retail sales figure showing 1.4% growth was an early warning of the consumer weakness that would come to define Europe. Recent data for September 2025 from Destatis showed German retail sales contracted by 0.5% year-over-year, confirming the trend. We should therefore consider buying put options on the Euro, as any negative economic surprise could cause a sharp drop.
The commentary on GBP/USD at 1.3150 and the US-China tariff truce also feels dated from our 2025 perspective. The Bank of England is now trapped, with the Office for National Statistics reporting September 2025 inflation remains sticky at 3.1% while economic growth stagnates. This suggests traders should use straddles or strangles on Sterling, positioning for a big move in either direction as the BoE is forced to make a difficult policy choice.
One thing that has not changed is the market’s focus on artificial intelligence as its gravitational force. What was then a headline is now the fundamental driver of equity market performance, with the Nasdaq 100 having gained over 40% since the start of 2024 on the back of AI-related earnings. We should continue to use long-dated call options on major tech indices to maintain upside exposure to this multi-year theme.
