The EURUSD encountered pressure after a recent rally hit a ceiling at the 200-hour moving average, reaching a swing area up to 1.1275. This region remains an obstacle for buyers, as the moving average has moved lower, now around 1.1243.

Today’s trading range has been limited, with highs around 1.1227, contributing to a bearish sentiment. The currency pair retreated and is retesting the 100-hour moving average at 1.11764, which provided earlier support.

A sustained break below 1.11764 could lead to further declines, targeting 1.1145, 1.1064, and the 38.2% retracement level of the 2025 range at 1.10395. Falling below the 38.2% mark is essential for sellers to gain control.

To regain strength, buyers must move above 1.1213 and challenge the 200-hour moving average at 1.12429, and the swing area between 1.12657 and 1.12754.

Support levels include 1.11764 (100-hour MA), 1.1145 (swing low), 1.1064 (weekly low), and 1.10395 (38.2% retracement). Resistance points are at 1.1227 (intraday high), 1.1243 (200-hour MA), and 1.1275 (swing area top).

What we are seeing now is a reshuffling of focus after the earlier attempt to rally ran into well-established technical barriers. The 200-hour moving average, once a level monitored for reversals, effectively halted advances near the top of a recognised swing area. That ceiling at approximately 1.1275 did its job in driving price action back down, with sellers using it as clear evidence that momentum was fading. Notably, the moving average has shifted lower, which highlights reduced optimism around further upward movement in the short term.

As price pulled back, it found temporary footing at the 100-hour moving average. That level—1.11764—has acted like a short-term pause point, where some buying interest emerged, but only modestly. It’s not holding with particular confidence. The failure to extend past the intraday peak near 1.1227 underlines a lack of initiative from those hoping for more upside. Every hour that passes with price under that cap adds weight to the downside proposition.

If the currency pair pushes through the mentioned support at 1.11764, there isn’t much left to carry the structure before it meets levels where we’ve seen reaction historically—1.1145, followed by 1.1064. The third area, at 1.10395, corresponds with the 38.2% retracement of this year’s rise. Pass through that, and it will be harder to argue for any sustained bid. From our perspective, retracement levels aren’t just mathematical—they tend to attract responses, and a clean break tells us sentiment might be tilting.

Meanwhile, if momentum shifts the other direction, buyers need to do more than nibble at resistance. They’ll have to break definitively above 1.1213, which is where progress stalled previously. That sets the stage for a move toward the 200-hour average, now residing at 1.12429. But even making it there wouldn’t be the final hurdle. The swing zone topping near 1.1275 continues to act like a lid on bullish attempts. Climbing back through that zone isn’t common without a shift in participation.

For those active in derivatives tied to this pair, we find that it helps to look at the proximity to these levels not just as passive markers but as points where decisions tend to cluster. Stops, profiling, and short-term expiry products often coincide when price hovers near a moving average or key retracement level.

As this sequence continues unfolding, we should pay more attention to how price reacts near 1.1176. That isn’t just a figure. It marks commitment, or the absence of it. If price holds there with higher lows on short timeframes, there’s room for upward ambition. If it weakens and trades through with flow backing the move, our inclination would be to target that 1.1145 level next. We’ve been here before. Often these pullbacks accelerate once those widely-followed tools give way.

While some may be waiting for higher volatility or a catalyst, the reality is we are already near points that function as triggers. That gives us room to think in shorter bursts—let the levels call the next move.