The European Commission has dismissed reports suggesting that the EU will accept a US tariff of 10%. They stated that these reports are speculative and do not represent the ongoing discussions.

The EU has consistently opposed what it terms as unjustified and illegal US tariffs. Meanwhile, the euro rose by 36 pips to 1.1586 today, though it experienced a modest decline in the last hour.

This short statement from the Commission makes one thing clear: there is no agreement, informal or otherwise, regarding the level of tariffs currently under discussion between Brussels and Washington. The use of the word “speculative” signals a deliberate effort to push back against any premature market positioning or assumptions rooted in rumour, rather than substance. In effect, officials are attempting to maintain negotiating room while avoiding adding any further heat to an already delicate situation.

The rise in the euro earlier in the day reflects reflexive optimism that a softer US stance might lead to a breakthrough. But the dip in price toward the session’s end may be more instructive. What we’re likely seeing is the fading of hopes among market participants who may have bought the rumour only to rethink once the Commission clarified its position. The timing of the reversal, closely following the rebuttal, supports this reading. Momentum trades that chased the early move would have had limited staying power in the face of such uncertainty.

In uncertain phases like this, action should be based on what’s been verified. Shorter-term directional bets, especially those relying on a single headline, have increased potential to be caught wrong-footed in either direction. We have to lean more on implied volatility data, keeping an eye on how pricing around the 1.1550–1.1620 range behaves over the next two or three sessions.

A moderately wider spread between options implies that the market is bracing for sharper swings, though not necessarily choosing a direction yet. Especially into next week’s talks, where round-based negotiation updates tend to leak unpredictably. One would do better focusing on gamma-heavy structures around those events, not drifting into wishful narrative trades wrapped in synthetic exposure.

Prices may snap either way, depending on whether the language from officials becomes firmer or shows even a hint of flexibility. That’s where our edge lies—staying close to confirmed shifts in tone rather than chasing shadows of positions yet to be established.

So when price reversals occur this quickly after a political comment, it pays to watch volume patterns as well. Today’s early euro move came on mediocre turnover, but the retreat showed heavier sell pressure—often the calling card of institutional repositioning rather than the retail crowd reacting late.

As for maintenance strategies near expiry, particularly for those holding calendar or diagonal setups, there’s enough time premium remaining to justify waiting for clarity—but not so much to be complacent. If risk-reward tightens too much within this range, rolling strategies might provide better shape, keeping exposure limited while still reacting to any sharp shift.

This is not the time to rewrite macro narratives, only to adjust positioning to reflect what we know—and right now, what we know is that speculation remains just that.