The Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) are traditionally seen as ‘risky’ currencies due to their ties to commodities. They usually rise when global growth prospects are favourable. The complex geopolitical landscape could influence this dynamic. Australia benefits from gold exports and is increasingly producing rare earths. Both countries enjoy solid food exports in 2025, likely less affected by geopolitical fluctuations.
Global Growth Outlook
Global growth remains influential for both currencies. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might resist rate hike speculations. The RBA’s next policy meeting is on February 3, and a less aggressive approach could impact both the AUD and NZD. The RBNZ will meet on February 18.
Potential dips in AUD/USD and NZD/USD are possible in the coming weeks. Movements back to AUD/USD 0.66 and NZD/USD 0.57 are viewed as buying opportunities. An upward trend for both currency pairs is expected into mid-year. These insights are compiled by the FXStreet Insights Team, which sources observations from market experts, adding analysis from internal and external specialists.
As we see it, the Australian and New Zealand dollars remain tied to global growth prospects and commodity prices, making them historically risky currencies. Their performance often reflects the market’s broader appetite for risk. This relationship, however, is being tested by new geopolitical factors.
Central Bank Meetings
The upcoming central bank meetings are the main events on our radar for the next few weeks. We expect both the Reserve Bank of Australia on February 3 and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on February 18 to push back against the market’s pricing for rate hikes. Recent inflation figures from the final quarter of 2025 showed a slight cooling trend, giving both central banks a reason to remain patient.
Given this outlook, we see a potential for both AUD/USD and NZD/USD to dip in the short term. Traders could position for this by considering buying put options with expirations in late February or March to capitalize on a potential dovish surprise from the central banks. Selling short-dated call spreads could also be an effective strategy to collect premium ahead of the expected downturn.
However, we believe any significant weakness should be viewed as a temporary setback. We see dips towards the AUD/USD 0.66 level and NZD/USD 0.57 as attractive entry points for longer-term positions. Buying call options dated for the middle of the year at these lower levels could be a way to position for a recovery.
The underlying strength in commodity exports provides a solid foundation for both currencies. We saw how crucial food exports were for both nations throughout 2025, and Australia’s growing importance as a supplier of rare earths adds a strategic long-term support. While iron ore prices have softened about 5% since their December 2025 highs, this short-term pressure doesn’t change the broader supportive picture for the currencies into the summer.
