Insights 
VT 
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is scheduled for an interview at 11am Sydney time. This is equivalent to 0100 GMT and 2100 US Eastern time. The specifics of his discussion topics are unspecified, though the focus is expected to revolve around the Australian economy and RBA monetary policy.
In other news, Former President Trump is advocating for a 15–20% minimum tariff on all EU goods. This announcement has affected the currency market, causing EURUSD to decline. A private survey has indicated a build in crude oil inventory, contrary to the expected draw.
Record Fine Issued
France’s data protection authority has imposed a record fine of 325 million euros on Google. In the US, the JOLTS report and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book suggest a slowing economic landscape. Additionally, the bond market has experienced relief. In political news, a Republican Senator has taken a stand in the ongoing saga involving Lisa Cook.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor being uninformative yesterday, we see increased importance on Deputy Governor Hauser’s words. The latest monthly CPI indicator for August 2025 came in at a sticky 3.1%, meaning any hawkish tone could sharply move the Australian dollar. Traders should consider buying short-dated AUD/USD options to play a potential spike in volatility, as a straddle could profit regardless of the direction.
The renewed push for tariffs on EU goods creates a clear downside risk for the euro. This isn’t just talk, as the latest data for July 2025 showed the US trade deficit with the EU widened to over $22 billion, providing a political motive. We believe buying EUR/USD put options is a straightforward way to position for further weakness, especially if trade rhetoric escalates in the weeks ahead.
Economic Slowdown Effects
Slowing US economic data, confirmed by the JOLTS report and the Fed’s Beige Book, suggests the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is over. The August 2025 JOLTS data showed job openings fell to 8.1 million, a sharp drop that signals a cooling labor market and eases wage pressure. We are looking at long positions in 10-year Treasury note futures, anticipating that yields will continue to fall as the market prices in potential rate cuts for early 2026.
The surprise build in crude oil inventories points to weakening demand, a trend that aligns with the broader economic slowdown. This was a significant 3.2 million barrel build reported by the API, and if the official EIA data confirms this trend, oil has more room to fall. Buying put options on WTI crude futures for the coming weeks offers a defined-risk way to bet on lower prices, especially as fears of a global slowdown gain momentum.
