Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams is in Basle, Switzerland. At 0730 US Eastern time, he moderates a session featuring keynote remarks from Professor Carmen Reinhart at the 24th Bank of International Settlements Annual Conference.

At 0915 US Eastern time, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack and Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will participate in a Fed Listens moderated discussion. This event focuses on labour market conditions, inflation, and interest rates at the “Building Strong and Sustainable Communities” Policy Summit 2025, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

BIS Conference Panel

Williams, currently attending the BIS conference in Switzerland, is chairing a panel that features Professor Reinhart as keynote speaker. Her commentary tends to concentrate heavily on debt cycles, global financial imbalances, and the rippling effects of tight monetary policy. The forum is typically where core policy ideas are tested in front of an audience aligned more with central bank orthodoxy than financial market speculation.

Shortly after that event, Cook and Hammack are appearing together in a separate discussion back in the U.S. on inflation and jobs. While the title of the summit references community development, the session itself will likely produce statements on interest rates and labour market slack. These topics have remained firmly linked to rate trajectory debates since the front-loading of hikes began more than two years ago.

In plain terms, those watching short-term interest rate futures have every reason to stay alert. Williams won’t likely make sudden shifts in tone, but the academic flavour of the BIS session offers fertile ground for nuanced policy views to come across. If Reinhart touches on foreign debt vulnerability or develops points around tightening cycles, it might lend weight to recent commentary from regional banks about policy remaining tighter for longer than markets had expected coming into the second half.

Cook and Hammack Discussion

The session with Cook and Hammack—both currently holding policy votes—requires more attention. Cook has, in past months, leaned dovish in tone while defending the broader dual-mandate goals. However, her views have carefully tracked inflation data’s stickiness. Hammack, being newer to her policy role, has so far stuck close to staff projections and general consensus. Don’t expect surprises, but even minor shifts in rhetoric around “appropriate” policy could register meaningfully on forward rate expectations.

The context, then, for rate traders, is hardly one of descending volatility. Recent mixed economic prints have underscored how sensitive policy direction remains. Surprising employment strength has turned into uncertainty about wage persistence. Inflation, meanwhile, continues to show an uncomfortable refusal to return to target in a timely manner. Fixing expectations today means managing known positions within a still fluid macro backdrop.

We must continue to pay close attention to language specifics. What’s said about the neutral rate, or whether labour data is described as “resilient” versus “tight,” matters. These words signal where comfort lies in present policy holding patterns. If the tone implies rates need to remain high through Q4, premium in short-end contracts is not misplaced. But should language shift toward a greater concern over household demand softening, those same projections could rapidly need adjustment.

As always in weeks like this, with more than one avenue for insight, reactions are not necessarily linear. Professional attention should remain trained on dissecting vocabulary and implied policy stance, not headlines. It’s less about guessing turns than refining the odds around the timing of eventual direction change.

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